Cincinnati Reds vs Texas Rangers Prediction, Picks 4/26/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Texas Rangers Overview

• Date: April 26, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Graham Ashcraft - Reds
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
• Run Line: Reds 1.5 -145, Rangers -1.5 120
• Money Line: Reds 145, Rangers -170
• Total (Over/Under): 9

Cincinnati Reds vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 39%
• Texas Rangers - 61%

Projected Win %:

• Cincinnati Reds - 37.13%
• Texas Rangers - 62.87%

Cincinnati Reds vs Texas Rangers Game Preview & Prediction

The Texas Rangers will host the Cincinnati Reds in an Interleague matchup at Globe Life Field on April 26, 2024. The Rangers, with a season record of 13-13, are having an average season, while the Reds boast a record of 14-11 and are having a good season.

The Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Nathan Eovaldi, who has started five games this year. Eovaldi holds a win/loss record of 1-2 and an impressive ERA of 3.30. However, his 4.07 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could perform worse going forward.

On the other side, the Reds are projected to start right-handed pitcher Graham Ashcraft. Ashcraft has started four games this year, with a win/loss record of 3-1 and an ERA of 5.24. However, his 3.26 xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better in the future.

The Rangers offense ranks as the 9th best in MLB this season, excelling in team batting average and home runs. However, they struggle in stolen bases, ranking 25th in the league. The Reds offense, on the other hand, ranks as the 15th best in MLB, with average rankings in team batting average and home runs, but they lead the league in stolen bases.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Eovaldi is ranked as the 68th best starting pitcher in MLB, while Ashcraft is ranked 90th. These rankings indicate that both pitchers are above average.

The Rangers are favored to win this game with a moneyline of -165, giving them an implied win probability of 60%. The Reds, as the underdogs, have a moneyline of +145, with an implied win probability of 40%.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

In his last outing, Graham Ashcraft allowed a colossal 5 earned runs.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Nick Martini is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Texas Rangers has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Will Benson hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 6th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Compared to league average, Nathan Eovaldi has been given more leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an additional 4.1 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Hitters such as Marcus Semien with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Graham Ashcraft who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jonah Heim, the Rangers's expected catcher in today's matchup, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 83 of their last 149 games (+19.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 53 away games (+15.90 Units / 29% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 16 games (+21.40 Units / 134% ROI)

Reds vs Rangers Prediction: Reds 3.97 - Rangers 4.91

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.