Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 9/10/2025
The Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres will end their three-game series at Petco Park on Wednesday night. The Padres and Reds have split the first two games of this series and will play for a series win in the rubber match. Below you will find stats, breakdowns, and my Reds vs Padres prediction for this game between two teams fighting for Wild Card positioning.
Our Reds vs Padres Pick
- Pick: Under 7.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres
- Date & Time: Wednesday, September 10 at 8:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Andrew Abbott vs Nick Pivetta
- Stadium: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: MLB.tv
Key Storylines
- Both of these teams are chasing playoff spots late in the season. The Padres are second in the NL Wild Card standings and are two games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West race. The Reds are three games back of the final Wild Card spot in the NL going into tonight’s play.
- The pitching matchup is terrific going into this game. Nick Pivetta and Andrew Abbott have both had good seasons and the starter who performs best in this game could put their team on the path to a significant win.
Pitching matchup
- Andrew Abbott has been very good for the Cincinnati Reds this season. Abbott is 8-6 on the season and his ERA is a slim 2.88. This is a huge test for Abbott as the Reds could really use a win and the pressure is on him to deliver it.
- Nick Pivetta gets the start for San Diego tonight. He has also had a spectacular season. Pivetta is 13-5 on the season and he has a 2.85 ERA. Pivetta has been the best pitcher on the mound for most of his starts this year. But he is in an evenly matched pitching matchup here and will need to step up his game to deliver a win.
Recent team streaks
- Cincinnati has won three of its last four games going into the rubber match of this series.
- San Diego had its three-game winning streak snapped by the Reds last night.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Manny Machado | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Elly De La Cruz | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Cincinnati holds a 3-2 advantage in the season series between these teams.
- This is the final game of the regular-season series between Cincinnati and San Diego.
Reds vs Padres Model Projection
Score Projection: Reds 3 — Padres 4
Win Probability: Reds 44% — Padres 56%
Final Thoughts
I am really excited to watch this game thanks to the starting pitching matchup. Both of these starters should hang some zeroes on the scoreboard early in this contest. And no matter who wins this game, I think that those starting pitchers are going to lead this game to stay under the total.
