Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 4/19/2025

Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face off against the Baltimore Orioles on April 19, 2025, the stakes are moderate given both teams' standings. The Orioles currently hold an 8-11 record, marking a rough start to their season, while the Reds are slightly better at 10-10, showcasing an average performance thus far.

In their previous matchup, the Reds picked up a victory, which could provide them with a psychological edge going into this game. The projections favor the Reds slightly, as they will send out Hunter Greene, who has been nothing short of impressive this season. Greene boasts a 0.98 ERA and is ranked as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his elite status. In four starts, he holds a 2-1 win/loss record and is expected to log about 5.6 innings today, albeit with projections suggesting he may allow 2.9 earned runs.

Conversely, Brandon Young will take the mound for Baltimore. Although Young is projected to pitch only 4.8 innings on average, he ranks as the 132nd best starting pitcher, placing him firmly in below-average territory. His projections indicate he might allow 2.3 earned runs but could struggle with control, averaging a concerning 1.0 walks and 4.7 hits against.

Baltimore’s offense has been surprisingly average, ranking 14th in MLB and 8th in home runs, which may provide some run support for Young. However, they face a Reds lineup that has struggled significantly, checking in at 24th overall and 27th in batting average.

With both bullpens in play, Baltimore's ranks 12th while Cincinnati's sits at 23rd, underscoring a potential advantage for the Orioles in late-game scenarios. While the Reds are favored according to the moneyline at -125, this game has all the makings of a closely contested battle, particularly with Baltimore's recent win and Greene's impressive yet possibly unsustainable performance metrics.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording 10.7 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

TJ Friedl has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 20.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is inflated compared to his 11.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Projected catcher Jose Trevino profiles as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Tyler O'Neill has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (73% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Baltimore Orioles batters jointly rank 3rd- in the majors for power since the start of last season when judging by their 9.3% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.65 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.40 Units / 41% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.71, Baltimore Orioles 4.99

• Date: April 19, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Brandon Young - Orioles

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.