Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Prediction – 5/7/2025

As the Atlanta Braves host the Cincinnati Reds on May 7, 2025, both teams are hovering around .500, with the Braves at 17-18 and the Reds at 18-19. This matchup is crucial for neither club, but current momentum may sway the outcome. In their previous game, the Braves defeated the Reds, a win that marked their third in a row.

On the mound, Atlanta will send Grant Holmes to face off against Hunter Greene of Cincinnati. Holmes, currently ranked 123rd among MLB starters, has a Win/Loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 4.24, indicating he may have been fortunate in his outings thus far. He's projected to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, which reflects an average performance, albeit with a concerning projection of 5.6 hits allowed.

In contrast, Hunter Greene is having a standout season, with a 4-2 record and an impressive ERA of 2.53, placing him 27th among MLB starters. Greene is projected to pitch similarly to Holmes in terms of innings but may have an edge with a lower expected earned run count of 2.7 and a stronger strikeout potential.

Offensively, the Braves rank 14th in the league but struggle in areas like team batting average (17th) and stolen bases (23rd), which could hinder their ability to capitalize on favorable matchups. The Reds have a slightly better offensive ranking at 12th overall. With a Game Total set at a modest 7.5 runs, betting markets view this as a very close contest. Both teams are listed at a moneyline of -110, suggesting tight competition ahead, with projections favoring the Braves slightly more than the current odds imply.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Hunter Greene's high utilization percentage of his fastball (58.7% this year) is likely hurting his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Extreme flyball batters like Jacob Hurtubise usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Grant Holmes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Matt McLain hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Grant Holmes has been one of the luckiest hurlers in MLB on balls in play this year with a .192 BABIP and ought to see that luck normalize going forward.

• Casual fans and the mainstream media don't realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.

Ozzie Albies is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Atlanta Braves have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.70 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 27 games (+5.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+6.00 Units / 15% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.6, Atlanta Braves 4.41

• Date: May 7, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Grant Holmes - Braves

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.