Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Best Bet – 6/1/2024

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 1, 2024
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hunter Greene - Reds
  • Justin Steele - Cubs

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs will face off against the Cincinnati Reds on June 1, 2024, at Wrigley Field. As the home team, the Cubs will look to improve their record of 28-30 in what has been a below-average season for them. On the other hand, the Reds are having a tough season with a record of 25-32.

The Cubs are projected to start left-handed pitcher Justin Steele, who is currently ranked as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Steele has a Win/Loss record of 0-2 this season, with an ERA of 4.45, which is considered average. However, his 3.73 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better in the future.

The Reds are expected to start right-handed pitcher Hunter Greene, who is ranked as the 50th best starting pitcher in MLB. Greene has a Win/Loss record of 3-2 this season, with an impressive ERA of 3.06. However, his 3.95 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward.

This matchup is the second game in the series between these two National League Central teams. In their last game, the Cubs lost to the Reds by a score of 5-4. The Cubs had a closing Moneyline price of -135, with an implied win probability of 55%, while the Reds had a closing Moneyline price of +115, with an implied win probability of 45%.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 22nd in MLB this season, with the 9th best team batting average and the 12th most team home runs. The Reds, on the other hand, rank 26th in MLB, with the 14th best team batting average and the 14th most team home runs. However, the Reds excel in stolen bases, ranking 1st in the league.

In terms of pitching, THE BAT X projects Justin Steele to pitch 5.9 innings on average, allowing 1.9 earned runs and striking out 6.3 batters. He is projected to give up 4.9 hits and 1.6 walks on average. Hunter Greene, on the other hand, is projected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 6.8 batters. He is projected to give up 4.4 hits and 2.2 walks on average.

Based on the current odds, the Cubs are the betting favorite with a moneyline of -140, implying a win probability of 56%. THE BAT X also projects the Cubs as the favorite with a win probability of 59%. The Cubs have an average implied team total of 4.01 runs, while the Reds have a very low implied team total of 3.49 runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Out of all starting pitchers, Hunter Greene's fastball velocity of 97.2 mph is in the 99th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

This season, there has been a decline in Elly De La Cruz's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.53 ft/sec last year to 29.94 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Recording 93.4 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Justin Steele places him the 80th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.279) provides evidence that Christopher Morel has been unlucky this year with his .200 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Chicago Cubs have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael Busch, Christopher Morel, Miguel Amaya).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 11 games at home (+7.50 Units / 68% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.36 vs Chicago Cubs 3.82

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