Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction – 6/20/2025

On June 20, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays are set to host the Chicago White Sox at Rogers Centre in what marks the first game of their series. Currently, the Blue Jays, with a record of 40-34, find themselves above average this season and are heavy favorites to secure a win. In contrast, the White Sox are struggling, sitting at 23-52 and ranked 30th in the league, a position that underscores their poor performance this year.

On the mound, the Blue Jays are projected to start Spencer Turnbull, who, despite having started no games this year, comes in with a strong ERA of 2.08 over his two appearances out of the bullpen. It's worth noting that although his advanced metrics suggest he may have been somewhat fortunate, he’s a high-groundball pitcher (47% GB rate) facing a White Sox offense that lacks power, having hit the 3rd least home runs in MLB.

Davis Martin counters for the White Sox, bringing a 3.79 ERA into this matchup, but his peripherals indicate he may also have benefitted from good fortune. Additionally, pitching deep into games may prove challenging for him, as he projects to average only 5.2 innings tonight.

The Blue Jays hold the edge statistically, boasting an elite bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB compared to the White Sox's dismal 30th rank. With the Blue Jays' offense positioned as the 5th best in batting average, they are anticipated to capitalize on any mistakes from the struggling White Sox pitching staff. The betting lines reflect this, giving Toronto a high implied team total of 5.27 runs against Chicago's low projected total of 3.73 runs, making this a matchup to watch closely for bettors and fans alike.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Davis Martin is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Rogers Centre — the #4 HR venue in MLB — in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Edgar Quero is penciled in 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Michael A. Taylor hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Spencer Turnbull has been lucky since the start of last season, putting up a 2.61 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.84 — a 2.23 deviation.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.9-mph to 96.6-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19.9% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games (+11.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 49 games (+8.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+7.15 Units / 29% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago White Sox 4.26, Toronto Blue Jays 5.29

• Date: June 20, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Davis Martin - White Sox
  • Spencer Turnbull - Blue Jays

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