Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Pick – 4/15/2025

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On April 15, 2025, the San Diego Padres will take on the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park in what promises to be an exciting matchup between two of the National League's top teams. The Padres currently sit at 14-3, showcasing a strong start to their season, while the Cubs trail closely with an 11-8 record. In their last game, the Padres grabbed a 10-4 win over the Cubs.

Padres' starter Randy Vasquez, despite ranking as the 280th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had a solid year with a 1-1 record and an impressive 1.72 ERA. However, his 6.27 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat fortunate and may struggle to maintain this level of performance. Vasquez's high walk rate of 19.4% could prove costly against the Cubs, who excel at drawing walks, having the highest rate in MLB.

On the other mound, Cubs’ Shota Imanaga has been performing well with a 2-1 record and a 2.70 ERA. While he is also projected to face challenges, particularly against a Padres' offense ranked 1st in batting average and 5th overall, the projections favor his ability to navigate the lineup, especially given the Padres’ low strikeout rate.

The game total is set low at 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially tight contest. As bettors weigh their options, the Cubs are favored with a moneyline of -140, but the Padres could surprise given their offensive prowess and home-field advantage. With both teams boasting considerable hitting talent, the matchup is poised to be a critical early-season clash.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Shota Imanaga is an extreme flyball pitcher (42% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #9 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Michael Busch has seen a big gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 98-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 91.7-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago Cubs bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Randy Vasquez's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (73.2% vs. 55.9% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Extreme flyball hitters like Jose Iglesias tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 67 games (+17.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 31 away games (+13.30 Units / 39% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.72, San Diego Padres 4.24

• Date: April 15, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shota Imanaga - Cubs
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.