Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians Prediction For 8/13/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: August 13, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Javier Assad - Cubs
  • Matthew Boyd - Guardians

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On August 13, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Chicago Cubs at Progressive Field in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. The Guardians, currently holding a strong 70-49 record, are enjoying a great season and are well-positioned in the playoff race. Meanwhile, the Cubs sit at a more average 59-61, struggling to find consistency as they look to make a late push.

In their last outing, the Guardians faced the Cubs and secured a 9-8 victory, continuing their strong play. The Guardians are projected to start Matthew Boyd, who ranks as the 90th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s above average despite his mixed projections for the day. Boyd is expected to pitch around 4.5 innings, allowing about 2.3 earned runs, which is a manageable output given the Cubs' struggles.

On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Javier Assad, who has had a rocky season. Although he boasts a solid 3.24 ERA, his 4.69 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate, and his projections indicate he could allow 2.8 earned runs while struggling with walks and hits. This could spell trouble against a Guardians offense that ranks 15th in MLB, particularly when taking into account their 8th ranking in stolen bases.

Betting markets currently favor the Guardians with a moneyline of -120. Their implied team total of 4.35 runs reflects confidence in their ability to capitalize on Assad's weaknesses. With the Guardians' bullpen ranked 5th best in MLB and the Cubs' bullpen ranked 26th, the Guardians appear to have the edge in this matchup. Expect a competitive game, but the Guardians seem to have the upper hand.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Javier Assad has averaged 14.7 outs per GS this year, placing in the 14th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Cleveland's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Christian Bethancourt, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

It may be wise to expect improved performance for the Chicago Cubs offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Chicago Cubs have 7 bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Lane Thomas has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 6.6% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past 14 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 115 games (+11.72 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 117 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+12.90 Units / 24% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.42 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.9

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