Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction & Picks 6/17/2024

Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox

Jun 17, 2024

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Details

  • Date: June 17, 2024
  • Venue: Rogers Centre
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox
    • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Red Sox 115, Blue Jays -135
Runline: Red Sox 1.5 -190, Blue Jays -1.5 165
Over/Under Total: 8 100

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Boston Red Sox - 45% Boston Red Sox - 42.27%
Toronto Blue Jays - 55% Toronto Blue Jays - 57.73%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on June 17, 2024, both teams find themselves in the middle of an American League East battle. The Blue Jays, with a 35-36 record, and the Red Sox, at 37-35, are both having average seasons. This matchup at Rogers Centre marks the first game in a series that could help either team gain some much-needed momentum.

Toronto's Yusei Kikuchi, ranked as the 93rd best starting pitcher in MLB, will take the mound. Kikuchi's season has been a mixed bag with a 4-5 record and a stellar 3.26 ERA. His last start was impressive, pitching five shutout innings with five strikeouts against the Guardians on June 11. Kikuchi projects to pitch 5.4 innings today, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 6.5 batters on average. However, he has struggled with control, projecting to allow 1.6 walks.

On the other side, Nick Pivetta will start for the Red Sox. Pivetta, ranked 68th among MLB starters, has a 3-4 record with a 3.88 ERA. Despite a rough last outing where he allowed four earned runs in four innings against the Yankees, Pivetta's peripherals suggest he's been a bit unlucky. His xFIP of 3.22 indicates he may perform better moving forward. Pivetta projects to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.3 batters today.

Offensively, the Blue Jays have struggled, ranking 22nd in MLB in batting average and home runs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been their standout performer with a .284 average and .780 OPS. This low power output might work in Pivetta's favor, given his high flyball rate.

Conversely, the Red Sox boast the 8th best offense in MLB, with Jarren Duran leading the way. Duran has a .278 average and .816 OPS, and the team ranks 6th in batting average and 5th in stolen bases, showcasing a well-rounded attack.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Blue Jays with a 57% win probability, slightly higher than the betting market's implied 55%. With Toronto's recent win over the Guardians and better bullpen, they might have the slight edge in this closely contested matchup.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Nick Pivetta is expected to average a total of 5.6 strikeouts in today's outing.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Bobby Dalbec's batting average skill is projected to be in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Boston Red Sox have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler O'Neill, Bobby Dalbec, Connor Wong, Ceddanne Rafaela).

  • Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

With 6 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected batting order, Yusei Kikuchi meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

George Springer has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Game Trends

  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 64 games (+5.80 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+7.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Danny Jansen has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+10.60 Units / 133% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.28 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.74

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+103
21% BOS
-122
79% TOR

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-108
22% UN
7.5/-112
78% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+170
40% BOS
+1.5/-205
60% TOR

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
BOS
Team Stats
TOR
4.32
ERA
3.68
.252
Batting Avg Against
.238
1.31
WHIP
1.24
.302
BABIP
.294
7.6%
BB%
8.0%
22.9%
K%
25.1%
72.8%
LOB%
76.4%
.262
Batting Avg
.260
.431
SLG
.415
.759
OPS
.746
.327
OBP
.331
BOS
Team Records
TOR
24-25
Home
22-26
29-21
Road
23-28
41-28
vRHP
38-43
12-18
vLHP
7-11
25-33
vs>.500
31-43
28-13
vs<.500
14-11
4-6
Last10
5-5
10-10
Last20
9-11
18-12
Last30
12-18
N. Pivetta
Y. Kikuchi
101.2
Innings
128.1
11
GS
24
8-6
W-L
9-4
4.34
ERA
3.44
11.24
K/9
9.26
3.63
BB/9
2.45
1.50
HR/9
1.54
70.5%
LOB%
84.2%
15.3%
HR/FB%
15.9%
4.27
FIP
4.35
3.89
xFIP
3.88
.212
AVG
.244
29.7%
K%
24.9%
9.6%
BB%
6.6%
3.62
SIERA
3.92

N. Pivetta

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 BAL
Lyles N/A
L5-9 N/A
4.1
6
3
3
5
0
49-67
4/26 TOR
Gausman N/A
L5-6 N/A
4.2
3
2
2
6
4
60-98
4/20 TOR
Berrios N/A
L1-6 N/A
4
7
5
5
4
4
61-95
4/15 MIN
Ryan N/A
L4-8 N/A
2
5
4
4
2
2
32-54
4/9 NYY
Severino N/A
L2-4 N/A
5.2
4
4
4
4
3
50-81

Y. Kikuchi

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 NYY
Cortes N/A
W2-1 N/A
6
3
1
1
7
1
54-78
4/29 HOU
Urquidy N/A
L7-11 N/A
2.2
4
4
4
4
3
39-66
4/24 HOU
Garcia N/A
L7-8 N/A
3.2
3
4
2
4
5
44-77
4/19 BOS
Eovaldi N/A
L1-2 N/A
5
3
1
1
3
3
58-91
4/12 NYY
Cortes N/A
L0-4 N/A
3.1
5
3
2
2
2
49-84

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
BOS TOR
BOS TOR
Consensus
+108
-122
+103
-122
+102
-122
+102
-122
+110
-130
+104
-122
+107
-125
+100
-118
+105
-125
+105
-125
+100
-120
+100
-120
Open
Current
Book
BOS TOR
BOS TOR
Consensus
+1.5 (-203)
-1.5 (+168)
+1.5 (-203)
-1.5 (+169)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-205)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (172)
-1.5 (+172)
-1.5 (+172)
+1.5 (-210)
+1.5 (170)
-1.5 (+170)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-220)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+175)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+175)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-200)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+165)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-111)
7.5 (-109)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-112)
7.5 (-108)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-112)
7.5 (-108)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-109)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-109)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)