Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 5/12/2025

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on May 12, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in the standings. The Tigers sit at 26-15, clearly having a strong season, while the Red Sox are slightly behind at 22-20, but still in the mix for a competitive finish. This matchup also marks the first game of the season series between these two clubs, setting the stage for an intriguing battle at Comerica Park.

On the mound, Detroit will send Jackson Jobe, projected to pitch 5.1 innings today with an average of 2.7 earned runs allowed. Although Jobe ranks a lower 242nd among MLB starting pitchers, his 4.22 xERA shows he might be due for better performance given his luck this season. Conversely, Boston will counter with Tanner Houck, who has struggled with a 6.10 ERA, despite projections indicating he could improve. This matchup creates an interesting dynamic, as both pitchers are right-handed and may face challenges against their respective lineups.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 6th in MLB, buoyed by a solid batting average and consistent power, while the Red Sox follow closely at 10th. Despite the Red Sox's strength in stolen bases, this game will likely hinge on timely hitting and effective pitching. The Game Total is set at an average of 8.5 runs, with both teams expected to score around 4.25 runs based on current odds, reflecting a closely contested matchup. This game promises to provide both excitement and opportunities for bettors looking to capitalize on the teams' current forms.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Tanner Houck's higher usage percentage of his fastball this year (46.2 vs. 32.4% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Trevor Story has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (90% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen grades out as the 9th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Among all SPs, Jackson Jobe's fastball velocity of 96 mph grades out in the 92nd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Zach McKinstry's average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 87.5-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 80.4-mph over the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Trey Sweeney hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Tanner Houck has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 3 of his last 4 away games (+2.25 Units / 54% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.71, Detroit Tigers 3.94

• Date: May 12, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Jackson Jobe - Tigers

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