Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Pick – 4/23/2025

Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the Baltimore Orioles at Nationals Park on April 23, 2025, both teams are grappling with disappointing seasons. The Nationals enter the matchup with a record of 10-13, while the Orioles are currently at 9-13, marking them as two of the league's struggling squads. In their last encounter, the Nationals defeated the Orioles, and will look to do so again today.

Washington's Trevor Williams, projected to start, has had a rocky season, sporting a 1-2 record and an alarming 5.95 ERA across four starts. Despite his low walk rate of 6.7 BB%, Williams faces an Orioles lineup that has been patient, ranking 5th in MLB for fewest walks. This could work against him, especially as he's projected to allow around 2.9 earned runs and 5.2 hits today.

On the other hand, Baltimore's Tomoyuki Sugano has been significantly more effective, boasting a 2-1 record and a stellar 3.43 ERA in his four starts. However, his higher xFIP of 4.98 suggests he may not maintain this level of success moving forward. Sugano's projections indicate he may allow 3.1 earned runs and 6.1 hits, which aligns him closer to Williams in terms of potential vulnerability.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 23rd in MLB, struggling to generate runs. Conversely, the Orioles’ offense ranks 13th, characterized by their power, leading to a high implied team total of 5.02 runs for this game, compared to the Nationals' projected total of 4.48 runs.

With betting lines indicating a close contest, this game presents an opportunity for the Nationals to capitalize on the Orioles’ inconsistencies and perhaps turn their early-season woes around.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Tomoyuki Sugano wasn't on when it came to striking batters out in his last game started and posted 1 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

In comparison to his 92.7-mph average last year, Gunnar Henderson's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 97.6 mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Ryan Mountcastle has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Williams to throw 85 pitches in today's game (9th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Batters such as Josh Bell with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Washington Nationals projected lineup profiles as the 5th-weakest on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+5.10 Units / 57% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 12 games (+2.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.40 Units / 27% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.63, Washington Nationals 4.82

• Date: April 23, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tomoyuki Sugano - Orioles
  • Trevor Williams - Nationals

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.