Baltimore Orioles VS Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Preview – 4/5/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates Overview

• Date: April 5, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles
  • Jared Jones - Pirates
• Run Line: Orioles -1.5 (+124), Pirates +1.5 (-148)
• Money Line: Orioles -135, Pirates +114
• Total (Over/Under): 7.5

Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Baltimore Orioles - 57.45%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 46.73%

Projected Win %:

• Baltimore Orioles - 54.59%
• Pittsburgh Pirates - 45.41%

Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates Game Preview & Prediction

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to host the Baltimore Orioles in an Interleague matchup at PNC Park on April 5, 2024. The Pirates, with a record of 5-1 this season, are off to a great start, while the Orioles have also had a strong season, boasting a 4-2 record.

The Pirates are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jared Jones, while the Orioles are expected to start Grayson Rodriguez, also a right-handed pitcher. This will be the first game in the series between these two teams.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Pirates currently rank #26 in MLB in team batting average, #23 in team home runs, and #12 in team stolen bases. These rankings suggest that their offense is struggling in terms of hitting for average and power, but they have shown some prowess on the basepaths.

Over the last seven games, the Pirates' best hitter has been Connor Joe, who has recorded 8 hits, 7 runs, 5 RBIs, and a batting average of .348, along with an impressive OPS of .966. Meanwhile, the Orioles' best hitter over the last seven games has been Colton Cowser, who boasts a batting average of .500 and an OPS of 1.333.

Looking at the overall projections, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicates that the Pirates have a higher win probability than the Orioles. While the Pirates have shown great form this season, it's important to note that projections are estimates of underlying talent and should be taken into consideration when placing bets.

Both teams have been performing well, and this matchup promises to be an exciting one. Will the Pirates continue their winning streak, or will the Orioles hand them their second loss of the season? Tune in on April 5th to find out.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles infield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Today, Gunnar Henderson is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.4% rate (87th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jared Jones to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Baltimore's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Oneil Cruz, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Henry Davis (the Pirates's expected catcher in today's game) profiles as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 63 games (+15.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 51 of their last 72 away games (+25.25 Units / 25% ROI)
• Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)

Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles 4.12 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 3.52

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