Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/18/2024

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles

Jun 18, 2024

New York Yankees

New York Yankees
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Details

  • Date: June 18, 2024
  • Venue: Yankee Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Albert Suarez - Orioles
    • Nestor Cortes - Yankees

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Orioles 130, Yankees -150
Runline: Orioles 1.5 -150, Yankees -1.5 130
Over/Under Total: 9 -110

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Baltimore Orioles - 42% Baltimore Orioles - 37.03%
New York Yankees - 58% New York Yankees - 62.97%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees and the Baltimore Orioles are set to open a highly anticipated American League East matchup on June 18, 2024, at Yankee Stadium. Both teams are having stellar seasons, with the Yankees holding a 50-24 record and the Orioles right on their heels at 47-24. This clash of titans is sure to be thrilling as it features elite offenses and some intriguing pitching matchups.

The Yankees, who boast the 2nd-best offense in the league, will look to capitalize on their power-heavy lineup, which ranks 2nd in MLB with 110 home runs. Their offensive prowess will face off against Albert Suarez, a right-handed pitcher for the Orioles. Despite Suarez's excellent 1.61 ERA this season, his peripheral stats, such as a 4.23 xFIP, suggest he's been quite lucky and could regress. Moreover, Suarez, who has made 14 appearances out of the bullpen and has a perfect 3-0 record, projects poorly for today's game, with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasting him to allow 3.1 earned runs in just 4.6 innings.

On the Yankees' side, Nestor Cortes, the left-handed pitcher, will be starting. Cortes, ranked as the 57th best starting pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings, has a solid 3.59 ERA this season. However, he's a high-flyball pitcher (48% FB%) facing an Orioles lineup that leads MLB with 114 home runs. This may pose a challenge for Cortes, as Baltimore’s power hitters could turn those flyballs into home runs, taking full advantage of Yankee Stadium's hitter-friendly dimensions.

Offensively, the Orioles are led by Anthony Santander, who has been on a tear over the past week. Santander has recorded a .318 batting average, 6 RBIs, and 3 home runs with a stellar 1.087 OPS in his last six games. Meanwhile, the Yankees’ Jose Trevino has been their best hitter over the past week, boasting a .333 batting average, 5 RBIs, and 3 home runs, contributing to his eye-popping 1.417 OPS in five games.

In terms of bullpen strength, Baltimore holds a slight edge, ranking 13th compared to the Yankees' 16th. However, New York's solid 58% implied win probability underscores their status as favorites, supported by their elite offense and Cortes' proven track record as a starter.

With the Bronx Bombers entering this game as betting favorites, fans can expect a high-scoring affair given the game total of 9.0 runs. It's a critical matchup that could have significant implications for the AL East standings as both teams look to strengthen their positions in the playoff hunt.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Albert Suarez's high utilization rate of his fastball (53.9% this year) is likely weakening his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

  • Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Jordan Westburg has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.

  • The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Baltimore Orioles bats as a unit rank among the elite in Major League Baseball since the start of last season (5th-) when it comes to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Among every team today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the New York Yankees.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

DJ LeMahieu's footspeed has improved this year. His 25.62 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.16 ft/sec now.

  • Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

Gleyber Torres has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 33 games (+19.25 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 28 games (+17.65 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 39 games (+12.80 Units / 29% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 4.29 vs New York Yankees 5.39

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+122
14% BAL
-144
86% NYY

Total Pick Consensus

9.0/+100
14% UN
9.0/-120
86% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-166
16% BAL
-1.5/+140
84% NYY

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
BAL
Team Stats
NYY
4.12
ERA
4.06
.243
Batting Avg Against
.231
1.28
WHIP
1.25
.299
BABIP
.276
8.3%
BB%
8.8%
23.9%
K%
23.5%
73.2%
LOB%
73.2%
.251
Batting Avg
.232
.420
SLG
.402
.737
OPS
.709
.318
OBP
.307
BAL
Team Records
NYY
29-21
Home
25-19
28-16
Road
32-20
42-25
vRHP
46-26
15-12
vLHP
11-13
35-22
vs>.500
37-27
22-15
vs<.500
20-12
4-6
Last10
3-7
8-12
Last20
6-14
15-15
Last30
12-18
A. Suárez
N. Cortes
N/A
Innings
63.1
N/A
GS
12
N/A
W-L
5-2
N/A
ERA
4.97
N/A
K/9
9.52
N/A
BB/9
2.84
N/A
HR/9
1.56
N/A
LOB%
69.1%
N/A
HR/FB%
11.0%
N/A
FIP
4.50
N/A
xFIP
4.83

A. Suárez

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

N. Cortes

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 TOR
Kikuchi N/A
L1-2 N/A
4
4
2
2
3
4
51-83
4/29 KC
Bubic N/A
W12-2 N/A
5
8
2
1
3
0
56-82
4/17 BAL
Zimmermann N/A
L0-5 N/A
5
3
0
0
12
1
62-88
4/12 TOR
Kikuchi N/A
W4-0 N/A
4.1
3
0
0
5
0
46-72

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
BAL NYY
BAL NYY
Consensus
+130
-148
+122
-144
+130
-155
+120
-142
+124
-146
+122
-144
+130
-155
+125
-148
+130
-155
+118
-140
+125
-155
+120
-140
Open
Current
Book
BAL NYY
BAL NYY
Consensus
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+141)
+1.5 (-166)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-166)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-172)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-172)
-1.5 (+142)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+138)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+140)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-125)
8.5 (+105)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-122)
8.5 (-125)
8.5 (+105)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-122)
8.5 (-124)
8.5 (+102)
9.0 (-103)
9.0 (-120)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-121)
8.5 (-125)
8.5 (+105)
9.0 (+105)
9.0 (-125)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-115)