Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians Prediction For 8/2/2024

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: August 2, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On August 2, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians will host the Baltimore Orioles in what could be a pivotal matchup between two competitive teams. Both are having strong seasons, with the Guardians holding a record of 66-42 and the Orioles sitting at 65-45. This game marks the second in their series, which the Guardians hope to leverage their home-field advantage at Progressive Field.

The Guardians are projected to start Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled this season with a 3-9 record and an ERA of 5.68, ranking him as the #319 best starting pitcher in MLB. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP stands at 4.13, indicating potential for better performance. Carrasco will need to improve on his projections of allowing 3.0 earned runs and 5.5 hits per game if the Guardians want to secure a win.

On the other side, Dean Kremer takes the mound for the Orioles. Kremer has a 4-7 record with a more respectable ERA of 4.20. Although he’s considered a below-average pitcher by some metrics, projections indicate he can pitch a little over five innings, allowing around 2.7 earned runs. The Guardians' offense, which ranks 15th in MLB, will need to capitalize on Kremer's potential vulnerabilities.

Cleveland's offense has been bolstered recently by Jose Ramirez, who has been on a hot streak, hitting .381 with four home runs over the last week. Meanwhile, Cedric Mullins has been leading the charge for Baltimore, showcasing his power with a home run in the same span.

With the Guardians' bullpen rated 5th in MLB and the Orioles' bullpen at 25th, Cleveland may have an edge late in the game. As the Guardians look to continue their strong run, this matchup promises to be closely contested, with betting markets reflecting a tight game, setting the stage for an exciting showdown.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer's fastball velocity has dropped 1.3 mph this season (92.8 mph) below where it was last year (94.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Jackson Holliday is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#2-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Carlos Carrasco has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Andres Gimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 101 games (+13.87 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 57 of their last 109 games (+11.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+21.55 Units / 26% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.43 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.79

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