Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Pick – 3/30/2025

Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

On March 30, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the Atlanta Braves at Petco Park in a pivotal matchup. The Padres are off to an impressive start, boasting a 3-0 record and currently ranked 1st in the National League West. In contrast, the Braves are struggling, sitting at 0-3 and ranked at the bottom of the National League East. The stakes are high as the Padres look to extend their winning streak, especially after a notable victory in their last game.

In terms of pitching, San Diego will send Nick Pivetta to the mound. Pivetta, ranked 86th among starting pitchers according to the leading MLB projection system, projects to pitch an average of 5.0 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs, which is good, and striking out 6.0 batters, showcasing his effectiveness. Despite some concerns, such as allowing 4.0 hits and 1.5 walks on average, he should have a favorable matchup against Atlanta's lineup, which has struggled early this season.

AJ Smith-Shawver will take the ball for the Braves. Unfortunately for Atlanta, Smith-Shawver is projected to pitch only 4.5 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out just 3.7 batters on average. His early-season performance has ranked him as one of the worst pitchers in MLB, and he'll need to find a way to turn things around against a Padres team that is firing on all cylinders.

The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating an average scoring expectation, while the Padres have an implied team total of 4.14 runs, compared to the Braves’ 3.86 runs. Given the current trends and pitching matchups, it's hard to overlook San Diego's momentum and overall stronger side as they look to put distance between themselves and the Braves early in the season.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

AJ Smith-Shawver's high usage rate of his fastball (54% since the start of last season) is likely hurting his results, considering they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Since the start of last season, Marcell Ozuna's 15.5% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 96th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen profiles as the 9th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

In his previous outing, Nick Pivetta was on point and conceded 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Luis Arraez has hit 3.1% of his balls in the air 100 mph or faster since the start of last season, ranking in the 0th percentile.

• To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 102 games (+19.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 141 games (+34.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jason Heyward has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+14.20 Units / 177% ROI)

• Date: March 30, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • AJ Smith-Shawver - Braves
  • Nick Pivetta - Padres

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