Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 4/16/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros Overview

• Date: April 16, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reynaldo Lopez - Braves
  • Hunter Brown - Astros
• Run Line: Braves -1.5 135, Astros 1.5 -155
• Money Line: Braves -110, Astros -110
• Total (Over/Under):10 -110

Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 50%
• Houston Astros - 50%

Projected Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 46.61%
• Houston Astros - 53.39%

Atlanta Braves vs Houston Astros Game Preview & Prediction

The Houston Astros will face off against the Atlanta Braves on April 16, 2024, at Minute Maid Park. The Astros, currently struggling with a 6-12 record, are having a tough season, while the Braves boast an impressive 10-5 record, making this an intriguing matchup.

On the mound, the Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher Hunter Brown. Brown has had a challenging start to the season, with a win-loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 16.43, which is far from ideal. However, his 5.59 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Meanwhile, the Braves will send Reynaldo Lopez, also a right-handed pitcher, who has been solid with a 1-0 record and an impressive 0.75 ERA.

In terms of the bullpen, the Astros rank 17th and the Braves rank 7th in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. While the Astros' bullpen is considered average, the Braves' bullpen is regarded as one of the best in the league.

Hunter Brown, known for his low strikeout rate, will face a Braves offense that ranks sixth in MLB for the fewest strikeouts. This matchup may give the Braves an advantage, as Brown may struggle to capitalize on his strength.

The game total for today's matchup is set at 10.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game. According to the current odds, both teams are evenly matched, with a moneyline set at -110 and an implied win probability of 50% for each team.

Taking into account the projections and underlying talent, the Braves have the advantage in this matchup. However, baseball is full of surprises, and anything can happen on the field. Fans and bettors alike can look forward to an exciting game between these two teams.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Reynaldo Lopez will have the handedness advantage against 7 opposing bats in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Among all starters, Hunter Brown's fastball velocity of 95 mph is in the 87th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Houston Astros are expected to tally the 5th-most runs (5.02 on average) of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 103 games (+13.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 72 games (+13.05 Units / 16% ROI)

Braves vs Astros Prediction: Braves 4.95 - Astros 5.02

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.