Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Prediction – 4/30/2025

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies will host the Atlanta Braves at Coors Field on April 30, 2025, as both teams look to find their footing in the National League. The Rockies are struggling significantly this season with a record of 4-25, while the Braves sit with a subpar 14-15 record. In their last matchup, the Rockies fell to the Braves, further underscoring their difficulties.

Chase Dollander is projected to take the mound for Colorado. While he ranks as the 116th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, his 1-3 record and alarming ERA of 7.91 highlight his struggles. The projections suggest that Dollander may experience some positive regression, as his 3.91 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky. However, he still projects to pitch only 4.7 innings, allowing an average of 3.2 earned runs. Against a lineup like the Braves, who boast the 10th best offense in MLB, Dollander's shortcomings could be amplified.

On the other side, Chris Sale is expected to start for Atlanta. Currently ranked 25th in the league among starting pitchers, Sale also faces challenges with a 5.40 ERA, but his underlying stats suggest he could turn things around. Sale projects to pitch an average of 5.7 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out 7.3 batters per game, taking advantage of a Rockies offense that leads MLB in strikeouts.

Given the stark contrast in pitching matchups, combined with the Rockies' 28th ranked offense, this game shapes up heavily in favor of the Braves, who have an implied team total of 6.37 runs. With the stakes high in this three-game series, expect Atlanta to capitalize on their strengths while the Rockies hope to reverse their downward trajectory.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Over his previous 3 games started, Chris Sale has suffered a sizeable decline in his fastball velocity: from 93.8 mph over the entire season to 92 mph recently.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Ozzie Albies has taken a step back with his Barrel% recently; his 5.6% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

It may be wise to expect positive regression for the Atlanta Braves offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 10th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Chase Dollander is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #4 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jordan Beck has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 100.2-mph average to last season's 90.2-mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.92 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 59% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 6.22, Colorado Rockies 4.86

• Date: April 30, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Chase Dollander - Rockies

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.