Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Prediction – 4/29/2025

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

On April 29, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Atlanta Braves at Coors Field in what marks the second game of their series. The Rockies are struggling this season with a dismal 4-24 record, while the Braves sit at 13-15, indicating their own below-average performance. In their previous matchup, the Braves triumphed, leaving the Rockies looking for a way to turn their fortunes around.

The pitching matchup features German Marquez for the Rockies, who has had a rough start to the season with an 0-4 record and a troubling ERA of 9.30. However, advanced projections suggest that his struggles may be a product of bad luck, as indicated by his xFIP of 5.37, which points to potential improvement. Marquez is projected to pitch 5.3 innings today, allowing an average of 3.4 earned runs. Facing him is AJ Smith-Shawver, who has also had a challenging season. With an 0-2 record and a 4.61 ERA, his strikeout potential (26.2 K%) might be an asset against a Rockies team that has the highest strikeout rate in MLB this year.

On the offensive side, the Rockies’ lineup has been lackluster, ranking 28th in the league in both overall batting and home runs. In contrast, the Braves boast a much stronger offense, sitting 10th overall and 8th in home runs. This disparity could significantly influence the game, especially since the Braves are projected to score 6.05 runs, while the Rockies are expected to reach 4.45 runs according to current betting odds.

As the Rockies look to regain their footing at home, they will need to capitalize on any opportunities against a Braves team that has shown its share of strengths despite a mediocre start to the season.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

AJ Smith-Shawver is an extreme flyball pitcher (38% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #4 HR venue among all parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball bats like Ozzie Albies usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like German Marquez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Atlanta Braves projected offense projects as the 4th-best of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

German Marquez's high utilization percentage of his fastball (58.3% since the start of last season) is likely hurting his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Jordan Beck is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the 7th-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.05 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Ryan McMahon has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+14.05 Units / 91% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 6.03, Colorado Rockies 5.24

• Date: April 29, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • AJ Smith-Shawver - Braves
  • German Marquez - Rockies

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