Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 4/26/2025

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Atlanta Braves on April 26, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League matchup. The Diamondbacks, currently holding a record of 14-12, sit above average this season, while the Braves find themselves struggling at 11-14. In their last outing, the Braves secured a victory against the Diamondbacks, adding to the pressure for Arizona as they look to rebound.

Merrill Kelly is slated to take the mound for the Diamondbacks. Although he ranks as the 134th best starting pitcher in MLB, his current 3-1 record and average ERA of 4.73 indicate that he’s capable of keeping games competitive. The projections suggest he’ll pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing approximately 2.8 earned runs. However, his 1.7 walks per outing could be a concern against a disciplined Diamondbacks lineup that leads MLB in walks drawn.

On the other side, Grant Holmes will start for the Braves. Despite a solid ERA of 3.22, his 4.61 xFIP indicates he may have been fortunate this season. Holmes's tendency to issue walks (15.1 BB%) could be exploited by a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 3rd in the league, showcasing their prowess with a .268 batting average and 6th in home runs.

With the Diamondbacks’ strong offensive capabilities and the Braves’ struggles, particularly in their bullpen (ranked 20th), Arizona looks poised to take advantage of this matchup. The game total is set at a high 9.5 runs, suggesting an expectation for offensive fireworks. As the Diamondbacks aim to build on their recent success, they present a favorable opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on their current form.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Grant Holmes must realize this, because he has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls a lot since the start of last season: 60.9% of the time, checking in at the 82nd percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Arizona's #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Ozzie Albies, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.3% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Merrill Kelly's fastball velocity has dropped 1 mph this year (91 mph) below where it was last year (92 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Gabriel Moreno has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 6.6% rate last year has dropped off to 0% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected lineup today (.321 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit worse than their .334 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 58% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+7.80 Units / 36% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.95, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.96

• Date: April 26, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grant Holmes - Braves
  • Merrill Kelly - D-Backs

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