Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Pick For 7/26/2024

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Details

• Date: July 26, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Charlie Morton - Braves
  • Kodai Senga - Mets

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Betting Preview

As the New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves prepare to face off on July 26, 2024, at Citi Field, both teams find themselves in the thick of the National League East race. The Mets, with a 54-48 record, are hosting the Braves, who stand at 54-47. With both teams having above-average seasons, this second game in the series promises to be a competitive matchup.

The Mets are projected to start Kodai Senga, ranked as the 58th best starting pitcher in MLB by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Senga is expected to pitch 5.4 innings, allow 2.2 earned runs, and strike out 6.4 batters on average—indicating a solid performance. However, he has struggled with control, projecting to allow 4.3 hits and 1.9 walks. On the other hand, the Braves will counter with Charlie Morton, who has an average projection across most metrics. Morton is expected to pitch 5.5 innings, allow 2.8 earned runs, and strike out 5.6 batters. Both pitchers have their work cut out for them, given the offensive capabilities of their opponents.

The Mets boast the 7th best offense in MLB, highlighted by power, ranking 4th in home runs. Jeff McNeil has been red-hot over the last week, with a .417 batting average, 1.423 OPS, and 4 home runs. This offense will look to capitalize on Morton’s tendency to allow hits and walks. Additionally, Morton’s groundball pitching style (48 GB% this year) might be tested by the Mets' home run power.

In contrast, the Braves' offense ranks 16th, with a notable strength in home runs, placing 10th in MLB. Zack Short has been the standout hitter for the Braves recently, with a .333 batting average and 1.167 OPS over the last four games. The Braves will need to find ways to get to Senga early and often if they hope to secure a win.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Mets rank 18th while the Braves are slightly better at 11th. This could give the Braves a slight edge in the late innings if the game remains tight.

The game total is set at 7.5 runs, reflecting the expectation of a low-scoring affair. With the Mets being the betting favorites at -140 and an implied win probability of 56%, they have a slight edge going into this matchup. However, with both teams neck and neck in the standings and the Braves' implied team total being quite low at 3.49 runs, this game promises to be a pivotal one in the series.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Charlie Morton has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing 5.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Marcell Ozuna has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99-mph average to last year's 96.5-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Atlanta Braves bullpen projects as the 10th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Kodai Senga has a reverse platoon split and will be disadvantaged going up against 6 same-handed hitters in this outing.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Despite posting a .376 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Mark Vientos has been lucky given the .060 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .316.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 79 games (+13.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 73 games (+19.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 32 games (+16.15 Units / 35% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 3.97 vs New York Mets 4.41

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