Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins Prediction For 4/14/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Overview

• Date: April 14, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Charlie Morton - Braves
  • Jesus Luzardo - Marlins
• Run Line: Braves -1.5 110, Marlins 1.5 -130
• Money Line: Braves -150, Marlins 130
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 58%
• Miami Marlins - 42%

Projected Win %:

• Atlanta Braves - 52.56%
• Miami Marlins - 47.44%

Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins Game Preview & Prediction

The Miami Marlins will face off against the Atlanta Braves in a National League East matchup on April 14, 2024, at LoanDepot Park. The Marlins, with a season record of 3-12, have been struggling this season, while the Braves have been performing well with a record of 8-5.

The Marlins are projected to start left-handed pitcher Jesus Luzardo, who has had a tough start to the season with an ERA of 7.20. However, his 4.29 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future. Luzardo is known for his high strikeout rate, but he will be facing a Braves offense that ranks sixth in the MLB for the fewest strikeouts, giving the Braves an advantage.

On the other side, the Braves will start right-handed pitcher Charlie Morton, who has been an average pitcher this season with an ERA of 3.18. However, his 4.84 xFIP suggests that he has been fortunate and may face some challenges going forward. Morton has a good strikeout rate, which could pose a threat to the Marlins' offense.

In their previous game, the Marlins defeated the Braves with a score of 5-1. The Marlins were considered underdogs in that game, with a closing Moneyline price of +185. However, they managed to secure a victory against the favored Braves, who had a closing Moneyline price of -225.

The Marlins offense has been struggling this season, ranking 30th in the MLB. However, they have shown some strength in team batting average, ranking third in the league. In contrast, the Braves have the best offense in the MLB, ranking first in team batting average and home runs.

Based on the current odds, the Marlins are underdogs with a moneyline of +130, giving them an implied win probability of 42%. THE BAT X projects the Marlins with a win probability of 45%, while the Braves have a projected win probability of 55%.

Overall, this matchup seems to favor the Braves, with their strong offense and better overall team performance this season. However, the Marlins have shown the ability to surprise and compete with the Braves in their previous game. It will be an exciting game to watch as both teams battle it out on the field.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Grading out in the 82nd percentile, Charlie Morton posted a 12.5% Swinging Strike percentage since the start of last season.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

The switch-hitting Ozzie Albies will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Jesus Luzardo.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Atlanta Braves in today's game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .338, which is a good deal worse than their actual wOBA of .366 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Jesus Luzardo has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an additional 3.2 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jake Burger has been hot recently, cracking 3 home runs in the past 14 days.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen projects as the 9th-worst among all the teams in MLB.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Braves vs Marlins Prediction: Braves 4.77 - Marlins 4.28

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