Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees Prediction – 4/2/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On April 2, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Arizona Diamondbacks in a pivotal Interleague matchup at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, boasting a strong 3-1 record this season, are coming off a resounding victory where they showcased their offensive prowess, further solidifying their position as the 1st best team in MLB. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks sit at 3-2, having also had a solid start to their season.

The Yankees are projected to start left-handed pitcher Carlos Rodon, who has been impressive with a 1.69 ERA in his lone start this year. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as his 2.73 xFIP indicates he could regress. Rodon faces a low-strikeout Diamondbacks offense, which might limit his ability to capitalize on his strikeout potential, as he boasts a 31.8% strikeout rate.

Zac Gallen, the Diamondbacks' right-handed starter, has struggled this season with a 9.00 ERA in his first start, but his 6.62 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and may improve. Gallen's high flyball rate (46%) could spell trouble against the Yankees' powerful lineup, which leads MLB with 18 home runs this season.

The Yankees' offense has been nothing short of spectacular, ranking 1st in batting average and home runs. The projections indicate that the Yankees are favored to score around 4.23 runs, while the Diamondbacks are expected to tally about 3.77 runs. Given the Yankees’ current momentum and their elite offensive capabilities, they appear well-positioned to take this matchup.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #4 HR venue in Major League Baseball — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Jake McCarthy's 2.8% Barrel% (a reliable metric to measure power) is in the 6th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Eugenio Suarez pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 9th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 hitters in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Since the start of last season, Aaron Judge has an average exit velocity of 96.3 mph, which ranks among the best in the league at the 100th percentile.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The New York Yankees have been the luckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 121 games (+16.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 105 games (+31.10 Units / 27% ROI)

• Date: April 2, 2025
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.