Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Prediction – 4/17/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

A pivotal National League matchup unfolds on April 17, 2025, as the Miami Marlins host the Arizona Diamondbacks at LoanDepot Park. This marks the third game of their series, with both teams eager to gain the upper hand. The Marlins are currently struggling with an 8-9 record, reflecting a below-average start to the season. In contrast, the Diamondbacks are riding high at 11-7, showcasing a strong performance thus far.

In their most recent outing, the Marlins fell short of victory against Arizona. Miami’s Edward Cabrera is set to take the mound, looking to improve on his impressive 3.18 ERA despite a concerning 4.64 xFIP, suggesting that he could face challenges moving forward. Cabrera's high walk rate of 12.5% could be problematic against a patient Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 3rd in drawing walks.

Eduardo Rodriguez will aim to turn his luck around for Arizona after starting the season 0-2 with a 4.86 ERA. However, his solid 2.75 xFIP indicates that better days may be ahead. Rodriguez is known for inducing ground balls, which could play to his advantage against a Marlins offense lacking power this season.

Offensive statistics favor the Diamondbacks, who are 2nd in MLB in overall performance and have a robust lineup. Conversely, the Marlins rank 16th overall but 26th in home runs, emphasizing their struggle to generate consistent power at the plate.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense projects as the strongest among every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Naylor can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

In today's matchup, Eugenio Suarez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.9% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Given that flyball pitchers have a substantial advantage over flyball hitters, Edward Cabrera and his 46.7% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in this game facing 2 opposing FB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball batters like Derek Hill generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Eduardo Rodriguez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Derek Hill, Jesus Sanchez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 47% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+7.25 Units / 20% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.62, Miami Marlins 4.19

• Date: April 17, 2025
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Eduardo Rodriguez - D-Backs
  • Edward Cabrera - Marlins

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