Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 4/19/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs host the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 19, 2025, both teams enter this matchup in strong form, sitting near the top of their divisions. The Cubs currently boast a record of 13-9, while the Diamondbacks are just behind at 12-8, marking an exciting early-season clash between these two competitive squads. In their previous meeting, the Cubs secured a narrow victory, edging out the Diamondbacks in a tightly contested game.

Ben Brown takes the mound for the Cubs, and while his 5.09 ERA this season raises some eyebrows, advanced metrics suggest better days may lie ahead. His 3.66 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky, and his projection of allowing just 1.9 earned runs today is promising. However, he faces a Diamondbacks lineup that excels at drawing walks, an area where Brown struggles with a significant 10.7% walk rate.

On the other side, Zac Gallen is projected to pitch 5.8 innings and has shown consistency with a 4.64 ERA, which is backed by a solid 4.02 SIERA. Gallen’s high flyball rate could be a concern against the Cubs, who are currently ranked 3rd in the league in home runs with 32 this season.

Both offenses rank among the best, with the Cubs at 3rd overall and the Diamondbacks at 2nd. The clash between Chicago's power and Arizona's plate discipline sets the stage for a fascinating contest. Despite an implied team total of just 3.75 runs, the Cubs’ offensive prowess suggests they hold an edge, making them a favorable pick as they look to continue their momentum against a potent Diamondbacks team.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Zac Gallen is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #21 HR venue in the league in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.2-mph average to last season's 89.2-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen grades out as the 10th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Ben Brown's high utilization percentage of his fastball (63.7% since the start of last season) is likely hurting his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#2-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Ian Happ has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.80 Units / 55% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.05 Units / 27% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games at home (+7.80 Units / 130% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.9, Chicago Cubs 3.79

• Date: April 19, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zac Gallen - D-Backs
  • Ben Brown - Cubs

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.