Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction For 5/20/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 20, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joe Mantiply - D-Backs
  • Yoshinobu Yamamoto - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 20, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. This National League West matchup features the Dodgers, who have been having a great season with a record of 32-17, and the D-Backs, who are having a below-average season with a record of 22-25.

The Dodgers will be the home team, enjoying the support of their home crowd. They have been dominant this season, boasting the best offense in MLB. With a strong lineup that ranks second in team home runs, they have been a force to be reckoned with.

On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have struggled this season, with a below-average record. Their offense ranks in the top 10 in MLB, but even that might not be enough against the high-powered offense of the Dodgers.

Taking the mound for the Dodgers is the right-handed pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yamamoto has been impressive this season, with a record of 4-1 and an ERA of 3.21. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Yamamoto is ranked as the ninth-best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his elite status.

Opposing Yamamoto is left-handed pitcher Joe Mantiply, who is projected to start for the Diamondbacks. Mantiply has a record of 2-1 this season with an ERA of 3.12. Although Mantiply has been solid, his advanced-stat Power Rankings suggest that he is a below-average pitcher.

Considering the pitching matchup, Yamamoto is a high-strikeout pitcher, while the D-Backs offense ranks among the teams with the fewest strikeouts in MLB. This could provide an advantage to the Diamondbacks, as Yamamoto may struggle to capitalize on his strength.

In terms of team rankings, the Dodgers have the best offense in MLB, ranking first overall. They have excelled in various offensive categories, including team home runs. On the other hand, the D-Backs have a solid offense, ranking in the top 10 in MLB.

Based on THE BAT X projections, the Dodgers are favored to win with a projected win probability of 69%, while the Diamondbacks are considered underdogs with a projected win probability of 31%.

Considering all these factors, the Dodgers have a significant advantage in this matchup. With their strong offense and elite starting pitcher, they are expected to outperform the Diamondbacks. However, baseball is a game of surprises, and anything can happen on any given day.

The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for the total combined runs scored. The Dodgers are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -220, implying a 67% win probability, while the D-Backs are underdogs with a moneyline of +190 and a 33% win probability.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Jake McCarthy's quickness has decreased this year. His 29.96 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.13 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Pavin Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto projects to average 17.4 outs in this matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.329) suggests that Miguel Rojas has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .278 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order grades out as the strongest of the day in terms of overall batting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+7.40 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 39% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+9.15 Units / 22% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 3.8 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.43

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