The Stanford Cardinal and SMU Mustangs will meet in ACC play on Saturday afternoon. SMU comes into this game as a heavy favorite and will look to stay above the .500 mark for the season with a win. Before these conference opponents kick things off from Texas, you can find my Stanford vs SMU prediction below.
Our Stanford vs SMU Pick
- Pick: SMU –17.5
- Confidence: 3/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Stanford Cardinal vs SMU Mustangs
- Date & Time: Saturday, October 11, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, University Park, TX
- Broadcast: The CW
Stanford vs SMU Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| SMU –17.5 | SMU –1200 | Stanford +700 | 54.5 |
Key Storylines
- This is only the third ever meeting between these programs. SMU won last year in Palo Alto by a score of 40-10. Their only other meeting was the 1936 Rose Bowl, which Stanford won.
- SMU won its first ACC game of the season last week when they beat Syracuse. The Orange were in the midst of a quarterback change in that contest and SMU will have to play a team with a little more offensive continuity here.
- Stanford has won two of its last three games after an 0-2 start. They are 1-1 in ACC play and will try to get above .500 in conference play by shocking SMU on their home turf here.
Quarterback Play
Stanford’s Ben Gulbranson has been asked to carry the Cardinal offense. In that wild 30-29 comeback over San José State, he threw for 444 yards and engineered the game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter. He has plenty of arm talent, but his defense and the players around him on offense are a concern going into this game.
SMU’s Kevin Jennings has been explosive so far this year. He enters this game with 1,411 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and six interceptions. He has completed over 70% of his passes and spreads the ball around to his receivers nicely. The balance of the SMU offense is one of the things that makes them dangerous on that side of the ball.
Betting Trends & H2H
- SMU is 0-5 against the spread so far this season.
- Stanford is 1–4 against the spread on the year.
- Four of SMU’s first five games this season have stayed under their totals.
- Stanford has gone 3-2 to the over so far this season.
- Stanford is 0-3 on the road this season.
- SMU is 2-1 in their first three home games of the year.
Stanford vs SMU Model Projection
Score Projection: SMU 38 – Stanford 17
Win Probability: SMU 87%, Stanford 13%
Final Thoughts
Neither of these teams have been particularly consistent so far this year. But I think that SMU has a much higher upside going into this game. The Mustangs are likely to take advantage of the fact that Stanford is winless on the road so far this season. I recommend laying the points with SMU here, as their offense should carve up a Stanford defense that gave up 48 points in its most recent road game against Virginia.
