UCLA vs Michigan State Pick & Prediction - 10/11/2025
Updated October 10, 2025
Updated October 10, 2025
UCLA and Michigan State will do battle in Big Ten play on Saturday afternoon in East Lansing. The Bruins are coming off their first win of the 2025 season, crushing the Penn State Nittany Lions from start to finish. They will try to build on that on the road against a 3-2 Michigan State team. Before the action begins in the Big Ten, continue reading to get my UCLA vs Michigan State prediction.
Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
Michigan State –7.5 | MSU –280, UCLA +230 | 54.5 |
UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava turned heads against Penn State, throwing for 166 yards and two scores while adding 128 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. That was easily the best that Iamaleava has looked since transferring to UCLA from Tennessee. But his consistency and decision-making under duress are still question marks going into this game.
Michigan State's Aidan Chiles has had ups and downs so far this season. In the Nebraska game, he went just 9-of-23 passing with two interceptions but did make some plays with his legs. In this battle of two inconsistent quarterbacks, Chiles will try to give his team the advantage at home.
The Spartans have been strong at home, going 3–0 this season in East Lansing. UCLA has lost all of its road games this season and will try to get their first win in a hostile environment. Against the spread, MSU has covered in two of its five games. UCLA is also 2-3 against the spread.
These teams are 3-3 against each other all-time. UCLA has won three straight meetings against Michigan State, but this is their first meeting since 1974.
Score Projection: Michigan State 31 – UCLA 20
Win Probability: MSU 74%, UCLA 26%
UCLA’s upset last week was electric and should be a confidence booster. But I am skeptical about their ability to deliver a repeat performance on the road. I'll lay the points with Michigan State, as they should get back into the win column now that their recent road trip is in the rearview mirror.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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