The Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes will battle in the Big Ten on Saturday afternoon. This was expected to be one of the games of the year in college basketball this season. But the struggles of Penn State have made the Buckeyes a heavy favorite at home in this game. Before kickoff from Columbus, continue reading to find my Penn State vs Ohio State prediction below.
Our Penn State vs Ohio State Pick
- Pick: Ohio State -18.5
- Confidence: 4/5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Penn State Nittany Lions vs Ohio State Buckeyes
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 1, 2025, 12:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
The coaching carousel at Penn State is a huge storyline going into this game. The Nittany Lions parted ways with longtime head coach James Franklin earlier this month and have interim coach Terry Smith at the helm for this game. That change arrives as the team is 0-4 in conference play and searching for an identity with its starting quarterback out of action.
Ohio State continues to dominate college football. They are at the top of the national rankings, defending their title and doing so with ease so far. The Buckeyes’ defense is the best in college football this season. They are allowing 5.9 points per game and are the only team in the country giving up under 10 points per game going into this week. They are likely to cause problems for the Penn State offense here.
Quarterback Play
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin is emerging as a true weapon. He has completed roughly 80% of his passes, for 11 touchdowns and no interceptions over his past five games. He has 19 touchdown passes and just three interceptions for the season. Penn State’s Ethan Grunkemeyer is making his second start and comes in with only 93 passing yards in his debut with two interceptions. The Penn State offense was struggling before Drew Allar went down and it isn’t playing any better without him.
Betting Trends
- Ohio State is 6-0-1 against the spread this season. They are the only team that has not lost a game against the spread.
- Penn State is 1-6 against the spread going into this contest.
- Ohio State games have gone under the total five times in seven games.
- Penn State has seen five of its first seven games go over their totals.
Penn State vs Ohio State Model Projection
Score Projection: Ohio State 35 – Penn State 7
Win Probability: Ohio State 92%, Penn State 8%
Final Thoughts
It is going to take a Herculean effort just for Penn State to do some consistent scoring in this contest. Putting points on the board against Ohio State’s defense would have been tough enough with their starting quarterback out there. But without Allar, Penn State might not score in this game. I’ll lay the points with the Buckeyes, who should remain unbeaten both straight up and against the spread for the year.
