The Alabama Crimson Tide and Oklahoma Sooners will meet in a Saturday afternoon game that carries significant College Football Playoff implications. Alabama (8-1) hosts Oklahoma (7-2) at Bryant Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa with the Crimson Tide ranked fourth in the country and on an eight-game winning streak. The Sooners are ranked 11th and need a victory to keep their playoff hopes alive. Before kickoff in the SEC, you can find my Oklahoma vs Alabama prediction below.
Our Oklahoma vs Alabama Pick
- Pick: Alabama –6.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Oklahoma Sooners vs Alabama Crimson Tide
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 15, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Bryant Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
- Broadcast: ABC
Key Storylines
- Alabama’s offensive balance remains a worry going into this game. Quarterback Ty Simpson has blossomed this season. But Alabama’s rushing offense has been bogged down, averaging roughly 3.9 yards per carry and ranking near the bottom of the FBS in that category.
- Oklahoma’s defense is elite. They rank among the nation’s best in rushing defense metrics (72 yards allowed per game) and they consistently limit big plays. The Sooners’ front seven stuff rate is very high and their ability to control line of scrimmage makes them one of the toughest assignments in the country.
- The wildcard going into this game is Oklahoma’s offense. Quarterback John Mateer has shown flashes, but his efficiency is lacking and he has clearly declined since suffering a hand injury early in the season.
- Alabama is driven by revenge going into this matchup. They were upset 24-3 by Oklahoma in Norman last season, a loss that cost them a playoff berth. Returning home with their perfect home record and playoff hopes on the line will make them a highly motivated team this week.
Quarterback Play
Ty Simpson of Alabama is the key to his team’s success. His 67% completion rate, 21 touchdowns, and just one interception reflect his outstanding efficiency and decision-making. Against a top-tier Oklahoma defense, his poise will be tested.
John Mateer’s dual-threat abilities give the Sooners flexibility on offense. But his passing numbers have fallen off since he got hurt. He is clearly a great competitor but he will need to execute at the highest level if the Sooners are going to pull off an upset in this game.
Betting Trends
- Alabama is 6-2-1 against the spread going into this game.
- Oklahoma is 4-4-1 against the spread so far this season.
- The Sooners have gone under the total in 7 of their 9 games this year.
- Alabama is 5-4 to the over through their first 9 outings of the season.
Oklahoma vs Alabama Model Projection
Score Projection: Alabama 24 – Oklahoma 17
Win Probability: Alabama 60%, Oklahoma 40%
Final Thoughts
The Oklahoma defense should make life difficult on the Alabama offense going into this game. But I still think that the Crimson Tide have the upper hand in this matchup. Mateer will fail to match the output of Ty Simpson, who will make a Heisman Trophy level statement as the Tide should win and cover the number on Saturday.
