The North Texas Mean Green (8–1) head into Birmingham to take on the UAB Blazers (3–6) on Saturday afternoon. North Texas brings one of the most explosive offenses in the FBS to Birmingham. UAB comes in as sizable underdogs trying to protect their home turf. Can North Texas keep its American Athletic Conference title hopes alive with a road win here? Find out what I think as I make my North Texas vs UAB prediction.
Our North Texas vs UAB Pick
- Pick: Over 68.5
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: North Texas Mean Green vs UAB Blazers
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 15, 2025, 2:00 PM ET
- Venue: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Key Storylines
North Texas is rolling going into this contest. Their offense is humming at a high level and they’re one of the top-scoring units in college football this season. UAB’s season has been rocky, but they have an upset win over Memphis on their resume this season and will try to pull off another upset here.
This game comes with high stakes for North Texas. The Mean Green are 4-1 in the AAC this season. They could move into the top two in the AAC standings with a win and some help from elsewhere in the conference. But the Mean Green must focus on taking care of their own business without doing any scoreboard watching.
UAB’s defense has tightened up in recent weeks. Over the last three games, they’ve allowed just 322.6 total yards on average. That could blunt some of North Texas’ firepower, or the Mean Green could undo that progress from the Blazers. UAB owns a –8 turnover margin, while North Texas is +11. That discrepancy gives UNT a big advantage.
Quarterback Play
North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker has quietly put together a stellar season. He’s completed 68.6% of his passes, thrown for 2,702 yards, and has 21 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions. Jalen Kitna leads the UAB passing game. He’s thrown for 1,785 yards, with 10 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Mestemaker is the better of the two quarterbacks in this game, but Kitna is more than capable of airing it out himself.
Betting Trends & H2H
- North Texas is 7–2 against the spread this season.
- UAB is 3-6 against the spread going into this matchup.
- The over is 6-3 in the 9 games that North Texas has played this year.
- UAB is 5-4 to the over going into this weekend’s action.
- UAB leads the all-time series between these teams 6–2. North Texas won their most recent meeting in 2023.
North Texas vs UAB Model Projection
Score Projection: North Texas 48 – UAB 27
Win Probability: North Texas 89%, UAB 11%
Final Thoughts
I’m going to take the over in this matchup between North Texas and UAB. The Mean Green have one of the most prolific offenses in college football this season. They should put up another huge number on the scoreboard in this game. But UAB will do enough to help push this game over the total as well. I’ll take the over and hope for an entertaining, high-scoring matchup in the AAC.
