The Iowa State Cyclones (5‑4) will travel to face the TCU Horned Frogs (6‑2) on Saturday at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth. TCU comes into this game having already secured bowl eligibility and off of their bye week. Iowa State is a win away from a bowl bid themselves and will try to get that win on the road this week. Here, I break down this Big 12 matchup and make my Iowa State vs TCU prediction.
Our Iowa State vs TCU Pick
- Pick: TCU -7.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Iowa State Cyclones @ TCU Horned Frogs
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 8, 2025, 3:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
- Broadcast: FOX
Key Storylines
- TCU’s home‑edge. The Horned Frogs stand at 6‑2, with several strong performances at home. Oddsmakers favor them by roughly a touchdown. Iowa State is 5‑4 and fighting to get back into form.
- Iowa State’s defense under pressure. The Cyclones have allowed over 30 points per game in recent contests and that has helped them suffer four straight losses. TCU’s offense will test their defense again in this contest.
- Big 12 implications. A win for TCU keeps them alive in the race to make the Big 12 title game, though it would still be a tough road for them to get there. A win for Iowa State would give them bowl eligibility while stopping the bleeding.
Quarterback Play
Junior quarterback Rocco Becht has thrown for 2,119 yards with 11 touchdowns and 7 interceptions this season and holds a QBR of 61.4 for Iowa State. His accuracy has dipped and he’s had some shaky outings, but the potential is there. TCU junior quarterback Josh Hoover has thrown for 2,371 yards, 22 touchdowns, and only 6 interceptions. He is consistently performing at a higher level, especially at home.
Betting Trends & H2H
- TCU is 4-3-1 against the spread this season.
- Iowa State is 3-5-1 against the spread in 2025.
- The Horned Frogs are 4-4 in over/unders this season.
- The under has cashed in five of Iowa State’s nine games.
Iowa State vs TCU Model Projection
Score Projection: Iowa State 20 – TCU 30
Win Probability: Iowa State 35% | TCU 65%
Final Thoughts
This game has all the makings of a TCU victory. With the Horned Frogs’ potent passing attack led by Josh Hoover, the Horned Frogs have the edge in quarterback play. They also have home-field advantage against an Iowa State team that hasn’t won a game since the month of September. I’ll lay the points with TCU in this one, as Iowa State will have to wait another week if they want to see bowl season.
