The Houston Cougars will travel to Waco this Saturday to face the Baylor Bears in a meaningful regular-season finale for both teams. Houston enters at 8–3 (5–3 Big 12) and trying to help its bowl situation, while Baylor is 5–6 (3–5 Big 12) and must win to secure bowl eligibility. Baylor is a slight home favorite, but this game could go either way from Waco. Before it kicks off, you can find my Houston vs Baylor prediction by continuing to read this preview of the game.
Our Houston vs Baylor Pick
Pick: Baylor -2.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Houston Cougars vs Baylor Bears
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 29, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas
- Broadcast: TNT / truTV / HBO Max
Key Storylines
- Baylor’s bowl life on the line. At 5–6, the Bears need this win to qualify for a bowl. They will hope that a heightened sense of urgency will fuel them to perform at their best on both sides of the ball in this matchup.
- Houston’s momentum and road identity. The Cougars are 5–0 on the road this season and they will try to finish off a perfect regular season on the road with a win here. Houston suffered a close 17–14 loss at home last week to the TCU Horned Frogs. Their defense forced four turnovers in that game and the Houston defense will need to step up again here against a potent Baylor passing game.
- Turnovers could decide the outcome. Baylor’s defense has struggled, especially against the run. And their passing offense, while potent, is vulnerable when pressured. Houston has a knack for forcing turnovers and this game could hinge on who protects the ball better.
Quarterback Play
Baylor’s quarterback is Sawyer Robertson, who leads one of the country’s top passing offenses. The Bears average nearly 310 passing yards per game, ranking third in the FBS. They average 453.8 total yards per game. Robertson enters this game with 30 touchdown passes on the season and he will be called upon to throw early and often here.
For Houston, Conner Weigman will be the starting quarterback for the final time during this regular season. In the TCU game, he passed for 161 yards and two touchdowns. He also added 114 rushing yards. If he can deliver another mistake-free performance here against a suspect defense, Houston could very well get a road win.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Houston is 7–4 against the spread this season.
- Baylor is 2-9 against the spread this year, which is the second-worst ATS record in FBS football.
- Baylor has gone 6-5 to the over entering this weekend.
- Houston has gone over the total in 7 of their 11 games.
- In their last game at Houston in 2024, Baylor won. The last time Houston won in Waco was in 2023 in an overtime victory.
Houston vs Baylor Model Projection
Score Projection: Houston 27 – Baylor 30
Win Probability: Houston 42%, Baylor 58%
Final Thoughts
I’m taking Baylor to win this game and to become bowl eligible. The Cougars have been spectacular on the road this season, but asking them to get enough stops against Baylor’s passing attack might be too tall a task for them. I’ll lay the points with the Bears in what should be a good one in the Big 12 with a ton on the line for the home team.
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