The Boise State Broncos will visit the Utah State Aggies on Friday afternoon in a Mountain West showdown with huge postseason implications. Boise State is currently 7-4 (5-2 in conference) and needs a win to stay alive for a shot at the conference title game. Utah State is 6-5 (4-3 in the MWC) and has quietly built a perfect 5-0 record at home this season. Before these teams do battle in Logan, you will find my Boise State vs Utah State prediction below.
Our Boise State vs Utah State Pick
Pick: Boise State –3.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Boise State Broncos vs Utah State Aggies
- Date & Time: Friday, November 28, 2025, 4:00 PM ET
- Venue: Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium, Logan, Utah
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
- Postseason stakes for Boise State: The Broncos enter this game needing a win to have their realistic shot at a Mountain West championship game berth. That urgency could sharpen their focus and energy in a hostile road environment. It could also cause them to make uncharacteristic mistakes under pressure. Only time will tell how this moment impacts the Broncos.
- Utah State’s home momentum: The Aggies are 5-0 at home this season and a win would give them an undefeated home record for 2025. That’s a rare feat and Utah State would have to feel good about things going into next season if they were able to get the job done here.
- Offensive fireworks likely: Both teams boast productive offenses and leaky defenses. This could be a high-scoring affair, as evidenced by the over/under sitting at 55.5 points.
Quarterback Play
Boise State’s signal-caller is Maddux Madsen. He has thrown for 1,994 yards this season with 15 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Madsen has been a bit of a disappointment for the Broncos after the departure of Ashton Jeanty, but he could still lead his team to the MWC title game with a win.
Utah State’s offense is led by veteran Bryson Barnes. Barnes has delivered 2,502 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions. Barnes will try to close his regular season out on a high note here against Boise State.
Betting Trends
- Boise State is 7-3-1 against the spread this season.
- Utah State is 9-2 against the spread going into the final game of their regular season.
- The over is 6-5 in games featuring Boise State entering their final regular-season game.
- The under has hit in 6 of Utah State’s 11 games.
Boise State vs Utah State Model Projection
Score Projection: Boise State 31 – Utah State 27
Win Probability: Boise State 60%, Utah State 40%
Final Thoughts
Despite Utah State’s unbeaten home record makes them an interesting team to bet on in this contest. But their best win on their home turf might have come against a 3-8 San Jose State team. They haven’t played a tough opponent at home yet this year and I’m expecting the Aggies to struggle with their only real test of the season on their home turf. I will lay the points with Boise State on Friday.
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