Saturday’s showdown between the Air Force Falcons and UConn Huskies is an interesting non-conference matchup in East Hartford. UConn comes in riding high off a dramatic 37–34 home win over Duke, while Air Force kept its bowl hopes alive with a gritty road victory at San Jose State in their last game. UConn is favored by a touchdown and you can find my Air Force vs UConn prediction before this game kicks off.
Our Air Force vs UConn Pick
- Pick: Under 64.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Air Force Falcons vs UConn Huskies
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 15, 2025, 12:00 PM ET
- Venue: Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field, East Hartford, CT
- Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Key Storylines
- Bowl Implications for UConn: At 7–3, UConn is already bowl eligible this season. A home victory here not only strengthens their résumé but also completes a very strong home campaign for the Huskies.
- Falcons’ Ground Game Threat: Air Force’s offensive identity remains its elite rushing attack, ranking second nationally in rushing yards per game. The Falcons lean on their run game and time of possession strategy to grind out wins and they will try to keep the ball out of the hands of UConn as much as possible here.
- First-Ever Meeting: This marks the first time these two teams will meet. There’s no historical head-to-head history to lean on when handicapping this game.
- Air Force’s Bowl Hopes: Air Force comes into this game with a 3-6 record after their win against San Jose State last time out. The Falcons need to win their last three games to become bowl eligible. That is highly unlikely, but Air Force will try to take things one game at a time to inch closer to bowl season.
Quarterback Play
UConn’s Joe Fagnano continues to propel the UConn offense. He’s thrown more than 2,800 yards and 25 touchdowns this season with zero interceptions. Having avoided any interceptions this season is incredible, given Fagnano’s passing volume.
Air Force’s Liam Szarka is a dual-threat quarterback who is more dangerous with his legs than he is with his arm. He’s thrown for over 1,200 yards and has more than 900 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns. His operation of the option offense for Air Force will be the key to his team’s success in this matchup.
Betting Trends & H2H
ATS trends: UConn has gone 5-4-1 against the spread so far this season. Air Force is 4–5 against the spread in 2025.
Over/Under trends: UConn has gone over the total in 7 of their first 10 games. Air Force has gone over the total in 6 of their first 9 outings.
Head-to-Head: There is no prior series history. This is the first-ever meeting between UConn and Air Force in college football.
Air Force vs UConn Model Projection
- Score Projection: UConn 38 – Air Force 24
- Win Probability: UConn 75%, Air Force 25%
Final Thoughts
UConn should win this game at home to continue what has been a very positive season for the Huskies. But my best bet for this game is the under. We should see Air Force run the football early and often to keep the clock moving and supress the scoring output on both sides.
