The opening round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament opens on Thursday, as Troy faces Nebraska on March 19. Nebraska enters the tournament after a strong Big Ten campaign and a season that featured one of the program’s longest win streaks in history. Troy arrives as the Sun Belt champion and carries an offense that pushes tempo and spreads scoring across several contributors. Here, I break down this matchup on the first full day of March Madness and make my Troy vs Nebraska prediction before tip-off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVeakKuGmkI
Troy vs Nebraska Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Troy Trojans vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
- Date & Time: Thursday, March 19, 2026
- Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
Key Storylines
- Nebraska finished the regular season with one of the top defensive units in the Big Ten, allowing roughly 65.7 points per game.
- The Cornhuskers opened the year with a 20-game win streak and reached the NCAA Tournament with more than 25 wins.
- Troy captured the Sun Belt title and averages more than 80 points per game, giving them one of the more explosive mid-major offenses in college basketball.
- Nebraska relies heavily on three-point shooting and ranks near the top of the Big Ten in made threes per game.
- Troy’s frontcourt combination of Thomas Dowd and Victor Valdes provides scoring and rebounding that can test Nebraska inside if they are at or near their best.
Key Players
Nebraska
- Pryce Sandfort – The Cornhuskers’ leading scorer averages about 18 points per game while shooting near 47% from the field and more than 40% from three-point range. His perimeter shooting stretches opposing defenses and fuels Nebraska’s spacing.
- Rienk Mast – Mast adds roughly 13.6 points and a team-high six rebounds per contest. His interior scoring and physical presence are essential against Troy’s strong rebounding frontcourt.
- Sam Hoiberg – A versatile guard producing around 9.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game. He also ranks among the conference leaders in steals, giving Nebraska an important defensive disruptor.
Troy
- Victor Valdes – The junior forward leads Troy with about 14.8 points per game while adding four rebounds and 4.6 assists. His ability to score and facilitate makes him the engine of the offense.
- Thomas Dowd – Averaging 14.8 points and 10.1 rebounds per game, Dowd anchors the interior and gives Troy a reliable double-double threat.
Stat Comparison
Stat | Troy | Nebraska |
|---|
Points per game | 80.3 | 77.3 |
Team Field Goal % | 45% | 46% |
Rebounds Per Game | 38.3 | 34.9 |
Assists Per Game | 16.0 | 18.0 |
Betting Trends
- Nebraska is 17-14-1 against the spread going into this matchup.
- Troy is 17-14 against the spread this year.
- Troy is 14-15-2 in the over/under market on the year.
- The under is 22-10 in Nebraska games this season.
Troy vs Nebraska Pick & Model Projection
- Score Projection: Troy 69 – Nebraska 78 ATS PRO
- Pick: Troy +13.5 ATS PRO
- Confidence: 3 out of 5 ATS PRO
- Win Probability: Troy 27%, Nebraska 73% ATS PRO
Nebraska enters this game with clear advantages in defensive efficiency and perimeter shooting. The Cornhuskers limit opponents to fewer than 66 points per game and hold teams to around 40% shooting, a major factor against a Troy team that relies heavily on shot volume and transition scoring. If Nebraska controls the defensive glass and slows Troy’s tempo, the Sun Belt champion could struggle to reach its typical scoring average.
Troy’s path to an upset depends on competing on the boards and getting a big night from its frontcourt duo of Dowd and Valdes. I don't think that Troy will truly threaten an upset here, but I will take the points with Troy, who should keep the margin within 10 or so here.
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