The Notre Dame Fighting Irish travel to Fort Worth to face the TCU Horned Frogs on Friday night. TCU enters on a three-game win streak and is looking to build on winning a neutral-site tournament last week. Notre Dame is playing its fifth straight power conference opponent and will try to build on a key win in the ACC/SEC Challenge. Before this contest begins in Texas, you will find my analysis below, including my Notre Dame vs TCU prediction.
Our Notre Dame vs TCU Pick
Pick: TCU -7.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ TCU Horned Frogs
- Date & Time: Friday, December 5, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Ed & Rae Schollmaier Arena, Fort Worth, Texas
- Broadcast: ESPN+
Notre Dame vs TCU Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| TCU -7.5 | TCU -325 / Notre Dame +260 | O/U 139.5 |
Key Storylines
- Home-court advantage for TCU: TCU is 3–2 at home and riding a three-game winning streak after beating Florida and Wisconsin on neutral floors last week. They average 79.7 PPG and have a +13.8 scoring margin. Their athleticism, defensive pressure, and ability to get high-quality looks from beyond the arc give them an edge against most teams in Division I college basketball.
- Notre Dame’s road durability tested: The Irish are 0–1 on the road this season and have seen tight outcomes in close games lately. They have faced four straight power conference opponents, all at home or on neutral courts. This atmosphere in Fort Worth presents a different challenge than their neutral-site or home games in recent weeks. Ball security and limiting turnovers will be critical for the Irish. Notre Dame averages 10.9 turnovers per game, which could be problematic against TCU’s pressure defense.
- 3-point shooting: TCU makes about 8.0 threes per game, very close to what Notre Dame allows (7.3 per game). On the flip side, Notre Dame averages 8.4 made threes per game, slightly above what TCU normally gives up. This suggests both teams may try to stretch the floor and take advantage of any perceived weaknesses with the perimeter defense of their opponent.
- Star power spotlight: For TCU, sharpshooter Jayden Pierre (44.1% from deep, 2.1 made threes/game) and efficient scorer David Punch (58.1% FG, 12.7 PPG) will be key. On the Notre Dame side, Markus Burton has been the offensive engine, averaging 19.9 PPG with solid playmaking and defense.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This marks the first trip to Fort Worth for Notre Dame, though they hold a 5–0 lead in the all-time series. It’s been nearly three decades since their last encounter.
- TCU is 5-2 against the spread so far this season.
- Notre Dame is 5-4 against the spread entering Friday night.
- The under has hit in 4 of TCU’s first 7 games.
- The under is 5-4 in games involving Notre Dame this season.
Notre Dame vs TCU Model Projection
Score Projection: Notre Dame 68 – TCU 76
Win Probability: Notre Dame 25%, TCU 75%
Final Thoughts
This is just the second road game of the season for Notre Dame and I think they could struggle somewhat in Fort Worth. I’m going to lay the points with TCU here, as I’m very impressed with what we’ve seen from them against Florida and Wisconsin recently.
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