One of college basketball’s fiercest rivalries takes center stage Friday night as the Cincinnati Bearcats travel to take on the Xavier Musketeers in the Crosstown Shootout. Both teams enter with solid early-season records, and while the overall series still favors Cincinnati, the recent history of this rivalry has belonged to Xavier. Before the action begins in Cincinnati, continue reading to find my Cincinnati vs Xavier prediction for Friday night's game.
Our Cincinnati vs Xavier Pick
Pick: Xavier -1.5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cincinnati Bearcats @ Xavier Musketeers
- Date & Time: Friday, December 5, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Cintas Center, Cincinnati, Ohio
- Broadcast: TNT
Cincinnati vs Xavier Odds
| Odds |
|---|
Spread | Xavier –1.5 |
Moneyline | Cincinnati +110 / Xavier –130 |
Total (O/U) | 146.5 |
Key Storylines
- Xavier’s hot 3-point shooting: The Musketeers have knocked down at least 10 three-pointers in each of their last five games. That shooting barrage has helped the Musketeers go 5-1 at home to start this season. Senior guard Roddie Anderson III is fresh off a 28-point explosion against Saint Francis. He remains their go-to threat from deep. Complementing him are forwards Tre Carroll and Jovan Milicevic, both capable of spacing the floor and scoring in bunches.
- Cincinnati’s paint presence & defense: The Bearcats are led by transfer big man Baba Miller and continue to rely on their physicality inside. Miller leads the team in scoring (14.2 ppg) and rebounding (10.2 rpg), and his return from a hip injury gives Cincinnati a stronger frontcourt presence. Defensively, Cincinnati is holding opponents to 63.4 points per game, one of the better numbers nationally. If they can control the glass and limit turnovers, they have a path to win this game on the road.
- Rivalry intensity & home-court advantage: This is the 93rd edition of the Crosstown Shootout. While Cincinnati leads the all-time series 52–40, Xavier has won five of the last six meetings. Moreover, Xavier has lost just one home game so far this season and enters with momentum and confidence that can they can use to gain an advantage in this rivalry game.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Xavier has won 9 of the last 12 encounters between these teams and 13 of the last 18.
- Cincinnati’s last win in the series came at home in 2024, while their road struggles at Xavier have continued.
- Xavier is 4-5 against the spread so far this season.
- Cincinnati is just 2-6 against the spread for the year.
- The over has cashed 5 times in 9 games for the Musketeers so far this year.
- The under has hit in 6 of Cincinnati's first 8 games.
Cincinnati vs Xavier Model Projection
- Score Projection: Cincinnati 71 – Xavier 74
- Win Probability: Cincinnati 42% / Xavier 58%
Final Thoughts
We should see a very closely contested edition of the Crosstown Shootout on Friday night. But I think that Xavier being the home team for this contest will help them to get over the hump. The Musketeers have been solid defensively and they should do enough to get the win on their home floor, while covering the spread as slight favorites.
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