Two of the last at-large teams to qualify for the 2025 NCAA Tournament will face one another as the San Diego State Aztecs face the North Carolina Tar Heels in Dayton, OH on Tuesday, March 18, 2025. The inclusion of North Carolina in this tournament is undoubtedly a source of controversy entering March Madness. But both of these teams will look to prove anyone who has doubted them wrong as they aim to earn a spot in the Round of 64.
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, North Carolina is a 2.5-point favorite, while the total for the game stands at 144.5. Continue reading to get our thoughts on both teams heading into this North Carolina vs San Diego State matchup, along with our best bet for the game.
North Carolina Looks to Silence Doubters
The North Carolina Tar Heels were not expected to be selected for an at-large bid in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. After losing to Duke in the semifinals of the ACC tournament without Cooper Flagg on the floor for the Blue Devils, the NIT appeared to be the best-case scenario for the Heels. But UNC was selected as an at-large team in controversial fashion and will look to justify that selection starting with a win in the First Four over San Diego State.
For North Carolina to win this matchup, defense is going to be critical. Going into this North Carolina vs San Diego State matchup, the Tar Heels rank outside of the top-50 in defensive efficiency according to Kenpom. Against a San Diego State that is incredible defensively, the Tar Heels have to step it up on that end of the floor.
San Diego State Looks to Start Another Tournament Run
San Diego State received one of the final at-large spots in this year’s NCAA Tournament after a 21-9 season that ended with a Mountain West quarterfinal loss to the Boise State Broncos. The Aztecs are known for playing stellar defense and they will look to do just that to beat North Carolina and earn a spot in the Round of 64, where the winner of this game will face Ole Miss.
San Diego State ranks in the top-15 in the nation in points per game allowed. They have given up 63.6 points per game on the year, while ranking 13th in Kenpom’s defensive efficiency rankings. The question will be whether SDSU can do enough on the offensive end of the floor to allow their defense to shine through and win them this game.
North Carolina vs San Diego State Prediction
San Diego State +2.5 (-110) over North Carolina
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Claim Bonus - San Diego State is much better than North Carolina defensively, which should help them to win this game.
- North Carolina does not belong in this tournament and that should bear out in the results here.
