Mount St. Mary’s vs American NCAA Tournament First Four Prediction 3/19/25

Jay Sanin on March 16th, 2025

A pair of 16-seeds will do battle in the First Four of the 2025 NCAA Tournament as Mount St. Mary’s will face off with American on Wednesday, March 19, 2025. Both of these teams won their small conferences to get to the big dance and will look to get a win here to set up a matchup with Cooper Flagg and the Duke Blue Devils in the Round of 64.

The latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook have American as a 1.5-point favorite in the First Four. The total for this matchup has been set at 133.5 points. Here, we take a closer look at Mount St. Mary’s vs American and make our pick for this 16-seed play-in matchup.

Mount St. Mary’s Aims to Climb Over American

The Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers finished in a tie for fourth place in the MAAC standings after the regular season. But they beat two of the top-three seeds in the MAAC tournament before defeating the Iona Gaels in the championship game. Here, the Mountaineers will look to start their March Madness campaign on the right foot as bettors hope they will continue to be a profitable selection against the spread.

This season, the Mountaineers have gone 20-11-1 against the spread, covering the number 64.5% of the time. That puts Mount St. Mary’s inside of the top-20 in the country in terms of win percentage against the spread out of 364 Division I men’s college basketball teams. We will see if the Mountaineers can cover the spread again here, building on the momentum from their MAAC championship triumph.

American Looks to Plant Flag In Round Of 64

The American Eagles won the Patriot League tournament as its top seed, beating Navy at home to secure an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. American averaged under 70 points per game offensively this season, as they play at one of the slowest tempos in all of college basketball according to Kenpom. But that slow tempo could also limit the offensive output of their opponent as they kick off their first NCAA Tournament since 2014.

For American to have a chance to win this contest, they are going to need to find a way to be more impactful on the glass. The Eagles are tied for the 11th-fewest rebounds per game in Division I men’s basketball this season, averaging 30.3 boards per game. They don’t have a player averaging six rebounds per game this year and will need someone to step up and clean the glass effectively to win this contest.