Updated March 11, 2026
Thursday’s SEC Tournament clash between Kentucky and Missouri is expected to be a close one in Nashville. Both teams enter the contest with plenty of urgency as they look to extend their seasons and strengthen their postseason outlook. Missouri finished the regular season with a 20-11 record, while Kentucky sits close behind at 20-12 after an 87-82 win against LSU in the opening round of this tournament. The Tigers earned the higher seed and already own a win against the Wildcats this season, which adds another layer of intrigue to this Kentucky vs Missouri rematch.
Pick: Missouri +3.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Missouri enters this tournament matchup with confidence after defeating Kentucky earlier in the season. In that January meeting, the Tigers pulled away late for a 73-68 victory at Rupp Arena, closing the game on a strong run after trailing in the second half. That win showed Missouri’s ability to execute in tight situations against a talented Wildcats roster.
Kentucky remains one of the most explosive offensive teams in the conference. The Wildcats average more than 80 points per game and rely heavily on scoring bursts from their guards. In their latest victory, Kentucky showed its offensive firepower again with an 87-point performance against LSU, where they fought off a spirited comeback effort from the Tigers.
Missouri also brings offensive strength, averaging just under 80 points per game this season. The Tigers’ success has come from efficient scoring inside and balanced contributions across the roster. With both teams comfortable pushing the tempo, the pace of play will be a key factor for bettors evaluating the total.
Missouri
Kentucky
Stat | Kentucky | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 81.2 | 79.9 |
Points allowed per game | 74.0 | 75.3 |
Team Field Goal % | 47% | 49% |
Rebounds Per Game | 38.3 | 35.6 |
Assists Per Game | 16.2 | 14.3 |
Score Projection: Missouri 79 – Kentucky 76 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Missouri 61%, Kentucky 39% ATS PRO
Kentucky is the big name brand here, but I'm going to take the points with Missouri in this second-round game. The Tigers have a rest advantage going into this game and have already beaten Kentucky at Rupp Arena this year. This should be a tight game in either direction, and I'll gladly take the 3.5 points with the fresher underdog in what I project to be a one-possession game.
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