Updated March 11, 2026
Two of the Big 12’s most dangerous teams collide Thursday when Iowa State faces Texas Tech in a conference tournament battle that carries major postseason implications. Both programs spent much of the season ranked in the national polls and have shown the ability to score in bunches while playing physical defense. Iowa State has been one of the league’s most balanced teams, while Texas Tech continues to lean heavily on perimeter shooting and depth, as they go into this Iowa State vs Texas Tech matchup without star JT Toppin.
Pick: Iowa State -4.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Iowa State enters this game with one of the most complete teams in the conference. The Cyclones average 81.8 points per game while holding opponents to just 65 points, creating one of the best scoring margins in college basketball. Their ability to pressure opponents defensively while also pushing the pace on offense has been a defining feature of the season.
Texas Tech arrives with plenty of confidence after defeating Iowa State in its most recent meeting. That game showed the Red Raiders’ ability to shoot their way past elite defenses. They connected on 14 three-pointers and shot 58% from the field in that contest. If the Red Raiders replicate that level of shooting efficiency, they will again be difficult to slow down.
The tournament environment could also influence the pace of play. Teams often tighten rotations and rely heavily on star players. That scenario benefits Iowa State’s top scoring options but also keeps Texas Tech’s best shooters on the floor longer, though the absence of Toppin will hurt with this in mind.
Stat | Iowa State | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 81.8 | 81.3 |
Points allowed per game | 65.0 | 72.5 |
Team Field Goal % | 49% | 47% |
Rebounds Per Game | 35.5 | 37.2 |
Assists Per Game | 17.3 | 16.0 |
Score Projection: Iowa State 79 – Texas Tech 74 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Iowa State 61%, Texas Tech 39% ATS PRO
This Big 12 showdown brings together two teams capable of making deep postseason runs. Texas Tech already proved it can beat Iowa State by stretching the floor and shooting efficiently from beyond the arc. However, tournament settings often reward teams with stronger defensive foundations and versatile playmakers. Iowa State fits that description with Jefferson controlling the offense and Momcilovic providing consistent scoring. Expect a competitive game with several lead changes, but Iowa State’s defensive pressure and balanced scoring should allow the Cyclones to edge out Texas Tech and cover a small spread.
Affiliate DisclosureATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.