Baylor Bears vs Duke Blue Devils Pick – 3/23/2025

The NCAA Tournament's East Region second-round features an intriguing contest between the ninth-seeded Baylor Bears and the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils. Tip-off is scheduled for 2:40 PM Eastern Time on Sunday, March 23, 2025, at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina. This matchup presents a compelling narrative, with Baylor aiming to upset a dominant Duke squad that has been a force throughout the season.

Baylor Bears vs. Duke Blue Devils Game Preview

The Baylor Bears enter this game with a 20-14 record, having edged out Mississippi State 75-72 in the first round. Guard Robert Wright III and forward VJ Edgecombe, both projected top NBA Draft picks, combined for 33 points in that contest. Forward Norchad Omier has been a consistent presence in the paint, averaging 15.9 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. Despite their talent, the Bears have struggled with consistency, particularly against elite defensive teams.

On the other side, the Duke Blue Devils boast an impressive 32-3 record. They dominated Mount St. Mary's 93-49 in their opening tournament game, with freshman forward Cooper Flagg contributing 14 points, seven rebounds, and four assists, showing no signs of the ankle injury that sidelined him during the ACC Tournament. Duke's defense has been exceptional, allowing opponents to shoot just 38.4% from the field this season. Their balanced attack and depth make them a formidable opponent.

Betting Insights

As of March 22, 2025, the betting lines are as follows:

• Point Spread: Duke -11.5
• Moneyline: Duke -800, Baylor +550
• Over/Under: 143.5 points

Duke has been strong against the spread, with a 23-12-0 record this season. They have covered the spread 16 times when favored by at least 11.5 points. Baylor, however, has a 12-19-1 record against the spread, indicating challenges in covering, especially against high-caliber opponents.

Historically, No. 9 seeds have defeated No. 1 seeds only six times, with a 6-73 record. Additionally, Duke has won and covered the spread in both previous matchups against Baylor since 2010.

Baylor Bears vs. Duke Blue Devils Prediction

Baylor faces a significant challenge in this matchup. To stay competitive, they will need to dominate the paint and improve their shooting efficiency, as they shot 43.5% from the field against Mississippi State. However, Duke's elite defense and balanced offensive attack present a formidable obstacle.

Considering Duke's recent performance and Baylor's inconsistencies, the Blue Devils are well-positioned to control the game. While Baylor may keep it close early, Duke's depth and defensive prowess are likely to lead them to a decisive victory.

Prediction: Duke Blue Devils 78, Baylor Bears 66

Given the current betting lines, Duke covering the -11.5 spread appears to be a favorable option. Additionally, considering both teams' defensive capabilities, the total points may lean towards the under.