Alabama State Hornets vs Auburn Tigers Prediction – 3/20/2025

The NCAA Tournament's first round features an intriguing matchup between the top-seeded Auburn Tigers and the 16th-seeded Alabama State Hornets. Scheduled for Thursday, March 20, 2025, at 2:50 p.m. Eastern Time at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky, this game presents a classic David versus Goliath scenario. Auburn enters the contest with a 28-5 record, while Alabama State stands at 20-15, having secured their spot through a thrilling First Four victory.

Alabama State Hornets vs. Auburn Tigers Game Preview

Alabama State has been on an impressive run, winning 11 of their last 12 games. Their recent 70-68 victory over St. Francis (PA) showcased their resilience, with sophomore guard Amarr Knox leading the charge with 16 points. The Hornets' offense averages 73.4 points per game, shooting 40.5% from the field and 33.0% from beyond the arc. Defensively, they allow 72.3 points per game, with opponents shooting 43.5% from the field.

Auburn, despite a strong season, has faced challenges recently, losing three of their last four games, including a 70-65 defeat to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament semifinals. The Tigers boast a potent offense, averaging 83.9 points per game on 48.3% shooting from the field and 36.8% from three-point range. Defensively, they allow 69.6 points per game, with opponents shooting 40.9% from the field. Senior forward Johni Broome is a standout, averaging 18.9 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game.

Betting Insights

As of the latest reports, Auburn is favored by 31.5 points, with an over/under set at 150.5 points. While Auburn's offensive prowess is evident, their recent struggles against the spread (0-4 ATS in their last four games) suggest caution. Conversely, Alabama State has covered the spread in five of their last seven games and has been competitive as a double-digit underdog during the regular season.

Key betting insights include:

• Auburn has won 24 of its last 25 games against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Alabama State has won 11 of its last 12 games.
• Ten of Alabama State's last 11 games have produced a total of 146 or fewer points.

Alabama State Hornets vs. Auburn Tigers Prediction

While Auburn's talent and depth make them the clear favorite, Alabama State's recent momentum and ability to cover large spreads cannot be overlooked. The Hornets' balanced scoring and defensive tenacity could keep the game closer than the odds suggest. Given Auburn's recent form and Alabama State's resilience, the Hornets are likely to cover the spread, making them a compelling pick for bettors.

Final Score Prediction: Auburn 89, Alabama State 60