Last season, the Kentucky Wildcats were a heavy favorite in the first round of the NCAA Tournament but suffered an upset loss. This year, they will look to avoid a similar fate as they take on the Troy Trojans on Friday, March 21, 2025. Kentucky enters this game as the three-seed in the Midwest Region, while Troy is the 14-seed going into this game from Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI.
Going into this game, Kentucky is a 10.5-point favorite according to the latest college basketball odds. The total for this matchup has been set at 152.5 points. For a full breakdown of Troy vs Kentucky, including our best bet for this first-round game, continue reading our preview below.
Troy Leaning On Defense In Bid to Trip Up Kentucky
The Troy Trojans won the Sun Belt Conference tournament, dominating their three opponents in that event. They beat Old Dominion, James Madison, and Arkansas State by double-digits to claim the conference title and an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. Here, the Trojans will face a much tougher battle and will hope that their defense can hold up well enough to give them a chance at an upset win.
Troy enters the NCAA Tournament ranking 25th in the country in scoring defense, giving up 65.4 points per game. While their offense struggled against Arkansas and Houston, they held both of those teams to 65 or fewer points early in the regular season. A similar defensive performance will be needed if the Trojans are going to win here.
Kentucky Hoping to Avoid Another First-Round Exit
Mark Pope’s first season as the head coach at Kentucky saw them post a winning record in the gauntlet that was the SEC. They lost in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament, with Alabama beating the Wildcats by 29 points in that contest. Pope’s Wildcats will look to bounce back from that resounding defeat in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, as the Wildcats look for a better showing than they had in last year’s tourney.
Last season, the Wildcats were shocked in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament, losing to the Oakland Golden Grizzlies. As Kentucky saw last year when they were torched by Jack Gohlke, defending the three-point shot is crucial against a lower-seeded opponent. As long as the Wildcats can do that, their athleticism should be more than enough to propel them to the next round.
Troy vs Kentucky Prediction
Under 152.5 (-110)
220K Gold Coins & 10 FREE Sweeps Coins
Claim Bonus - Troy is a very good defensive team and if they want to stay in this game, they will need to keep it low-scoring.
- Troy’s tempo is in the 200s according to Kenpom and they should try to slow this game down, which will be good for the under.
