United are a narrow home favorite here, but the underlying numbers don’t fully support that price. Their npxG over the last five matches sits at 1.28, well below their headline xG of 1.62, with the gap explained by penalties and […]
The market is shading Arsenal correctly on the moneyline, but it’s still light on the probability that this turns into a multi-goal home win. Newcastle arrive with Joelinton suspended, Gordon a major doubt, and an away npxG profile that says […]
Tottenham led Brighton 2-1 until the 90th minute last weekend, put up 13 shots and six on target, and lost the draw to a Danso error in stoppage time. They showed a clear understanding of De Zerbi’s vision and looked […]