Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction: Can Reds Seal Their UCL Spot?

Liverpool to Win & Under 3.5 Goals (+155) is the pick. Our model prices it at +125, a 6.4% edge the market is leaving on the table because books are pricing the result and the total separately rather than recognising what a six-game losing streak does to a Chelsea attack that’s already underperforming its xG by nearly 16 goals from open play.

Chelsea arrive at Anfield with an interim manager, six straight defeats, and a 542-minute league scoring drought only just snapped against Forest. Liverpool need a win to confirm Champions League football and have lost just one of their last four home games against the Blues. Fair Price: +125.

Liverpool vs Chelsea Analysis

• The Sharp Play: Liverpool to Win & Under 3.5 Goals (+155)
• Confidence Level: 4/5

Chelsea are in freefall. Six straight defeats. An interim manager in Calum McFarlane who has yet to find anything close to a coherent attacking pattern. A 542-minute Premier League scoring drought finally broken in stoppage time against Forest, and that was in a 3-1 home defeat to a side fighting for European football. They sit ninth, mathematically out of the top five, with their entire continental hope now resting on Aston Villa winning the Europa League.

That’s the team turning up to Anfield against a Liverpool side that needs three points to confirm Champions League qualification. The market has Liverpool around -110 outright, which is fair, but the result-and-total combo at +155 is where the real edge lives. Chelsea’s open-play attacking output has been one of the worst-converting in the division relative to xG. Eight penalties have padded their goal total. Strip those out, and the goal-scoring picture against a settled Liverpool defence becomes very thin. Under 3.5 hits in four of Chelsea’s last five matches, and a Liverpool win at home is the most-likely individual outcome on the board.

Advanced Metrics & Tactical Matchup

Chelsea

Chelsea‘s underlying numbers are the cleanest read on why this losing run isn’t reversing this weekend. They’ve scored 54 goals off 69.6 xG across the season, which on the surface looks like normal variance. But eight of those 54 are penalties, and once you isolate open-play production, Chelsea have underperformed their xG from open play by 15.9 goals. That’s not a hot or cold streak. That’s a structural finishing problem that’s been baked in all season and has only intensified since McFarlane took the dugout.

The xG itself isn’t the issue. Chelsea generate volume. What they don’t do is finish. Cole Palmer has had stretches where he’s looked like the player who carried them last year, but he’s been targeted by every defensive structure that faces them and the chance quality has dropped. Pedro has scored Chelsea’s only Premier League goal across their last three matches, and that came in stoppage time against Forest. There’s no rhythm in possession, no third-man combinations, no settled front line because the front line keeps changing depending on which winger has just picked up a knock.

Liverpool

Liverpool‘s defensive numbers are messy too. They posted 2.3 xGA against United on Sunday, all from open play, and have kept just one clean sheet in their last eight. The xG concession isn’t catastrophic but the goals against figure has been propped up by opposition red cards and shooting variance. Strip the luck out and the defensive picture looks closer to mid-table than title-winning. That’s the case for Chelsea finding the net once at Anfield. It’s not the case for them finding it twice.

The midfield matchup tilts Liverpool’s way regardless of who Slot picks. Mac Allister and Gravenberch as a double pivot has been Liverpool’s most reliable structure since Christmas, and Wirtz operating with creative freedom in the half-spaces is a problem Chelsea’s midfield without Caicedo at his peak struggles to track. Chelsea’s pressing intensity has dropped through the losing run; they’re letting opponents play through them too easily, and Wirtz is exactly the player to exploit a passive press at tempo.

The wildcard is Liverpool’s goalkeeper situation. If Mamardashvili doesn’t pass his fitness test, Freddie Woodman starts again. Woodman conceded three at Old Trafford on Sunday and his distribution under press is well below the level Slot’s build-up demands. That’s the realistic scenario where Chelsea sneak a goal and the game opens up slightly. But even with Woodman in goal, Chelsea’s open-play conversion rate makes a multi-goal Chelsea performance the long-shot outcome, not the base case.

Team News & Impact Analysis

Liverpool

Liverpool are dealing with a number of injuries. Mohamed Salah misses out with the hamstring injury he picked up against Crystal Palace; Slot has hinted Aston Villa next week is more realistic for the Egyptian’s return. Alexander Isak looks set to play some part in this fixture, with Slot saying the Swedish striker was able to participate in “parts of” training on Thursday , before adding “we will see how much we can use him tomorrow”. Hugo Ekitike is finished for the season after rupturing his Achilles against PSG, ruling him out of the World Cup as well.

Alisson Becker will miss this fixture as well after Slot confirmed in his pre-match press conference that he has not yet returned to training. Giorgi Mamardashvili, however, returned to training on Friday and is in contention to start. If the georgian is not ready to return, Freddie Woodman will continue in goal. Conor Bradley, Wataru Endo and Giovanni Leoni are the long-term absentees who won’t feature again this season.

Curtis Jones could continue to deputise at right-back, with Slot preferring the Melwood product to Frimpong in recent weeks. The midfield trio of Mac Allister, Gravenberch and Szoboszlai picks itself, and Wirtz is the one who carries the creative load with Salah out. Up top, if Isak makes it, he leads the line. If he doesn’t, Slot’s options are thin and a false-nine setup with Wirtz or Gakpo central becomes the realistic alternative.

Chelsea

Chelsea’s situation is, if anything, worse. Robert Sanchez is in concussion protocol after a brutal head clash with Morgan Gibbs-White against Forest and faces stringent FA return-to-play assessments. Filip Jorgensen is the likely replacement if Sanchez doesn’t pass. Pedro Neto and Alejandro Garnacho both missed the Forest game with knocks and remain doubts; Jesse Derry was knocked unconscious after a clash of heads on his Premier League debut and won’t be available. Estevao is out for the season with a hamstring issue. Jamie Gittens is also ruled out, and Mykhailo Mudryk remains unavailable due to his ongoing FA suspension.

The encouraging note for Chelsea is that Reece James returned to the matchday squad against Forest and Levi Colwill made his comeback after a long-term knee absence. Both are likely to be involved at Anfield, although asking Colwill for 90 minutes of intensity in his first start back is a stretch. The defensive options are stretched, the attacking depth is essentially Pedro plus whoever can pass a fitness test on Friday afternoon.

Predicted Lineups

Subject to currently available data and injury news. Will be updated ahead of kickoff. Salah is out injured. Isak and Mamardashvili are late fitness tests. For Chelsea, Sanchez is in concussion protocol with Jorgensen the likely replacement. Neto and Garnacho are both doubts.

Key Betting Stats

• Chelsea have lost six consecutive Premier League matches and are in their worst league run in over a decade. They’ve now slipped to ninth in the table and cannot mathematically finish in the top five.
• Chelsea went 542 minutes without a Premier League goal before Pedro’s stoppage-time consolation against Forest. Their open-play xG underperformance for the season sits at 15.9 goals, one of the worst figures in the division.
• Liverpool have won 17 of their last 39 home meetings with Chelsea in all competitions, with 12 draws and just nine away wins for the Blues. The aggregate goal record is 61-42 in Liverpool’s favour at Anfield.
• Under 3.5 goals has landed in four of Chelsea’s last five Premier League matches and three of Liverpool’s last five. The volume isn’t there on either side relative to season averages.
• Liverpool have not beaten Chelsea in their last two league games, but those results came under different defensive configurations and with both sides nearer full strength.
• In Chelsea’s last six matches, at least one team has failed to score five times. The pattern points to closed games rather than goal-fests, even when Chelsea concede.

Prop Betting Market

• Florian Wirtz Anytime Scorer (+165): With Salah out and Isak no certainty, Wirtz becomes Liverpool’s primary attacking focal point at Anfield. Chelsea’s midfield without consistent pressing intensity will give him pockets of space between the lines, and his arrival into the box from the half-spaces has been one of Liverpool’s most reliable patterns in 2026. Against a Chelsea backline potentially featuring a returning Colwill in his first start back from injury, Wirtz’s diagonal runs are exactly the kind of movement that exploits a defender lacking match sharpness.
• Liverpool Clean Sheet (+135): Chelsea’s open-play conversion is broken. They’ve scored once in the last 540-plus minutes of football, and that came against a Forest side that effectively stopped defending after going three goals up. Liverpool’s xGA numbers are messy, but the chance quality Chelsea generate without a settled front line is well below what’s needed to break down a back four featuring Van Dijk and Konate. The +135 line is the cleanest expression of Chelsea’s attacking dysfunction.
• Cole Palmer Under 0.5 Goals (-135): Palmer has been Chelsea’s only consistent attacking outlet but he’s struggled badly against top-six opposition this season. He’s been moved around the front line by McFarlane, dropped deeper in some matches and pushed wide in others, and the rhythm hasn’t returned. Against Liverpool’s compact midfield with Mac Allister and Gravenberch screening, Palmer’s space to operate will be limited, and the chance volume he generates from wide positions converts at a poor rate. The under is the safer side of his goalscorer market.

Final Betting Model Projection

The market sees a wounded Liverpool and a Chelsea side that scored a goal on Monday and has somehow priced this closer to a contested game than the data supports. Chelsea’s open-play attacking output is broken. Their goalkeeper is in concussion protocol. Their two starting wingers are doubts. Their interim manager has yet to win a Premier League match.

Liverpool to Win & Under 3.5 at +155 is the number. The model prices it at +125, making this a plus-money line on a high-confidence outcome. Liverpool find a way to break Chelsea down once or twice, the visitors’ open-play production stays within its broken pattern, and the game finishes well inside the total. That’s the most likely combined outcome on the board, and the books are pricing in too much variance on the Chelsea side of it.