2024 Olympic Men’s 400m Freestyle Predictions: Will Australia Grab Silver and Gold?

This year’s Olympic men’s 400m freestyle race in swimming is a wide open affair, with every swimmer at plus money to take the gold medal. And without an American in true contention to grab gold, the casual American audience is going to see plenty of faces we haven’t seen before celebrating in the pool in Paris. Here, we break down this race and pick a winner in what should be an exciting first medal event in Olympic swimming in the Paris Games.

Olympic Men’s 400m Freestyle Betting Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook

There are three favorites to win the Olympic men’s 400m freestyle that stand out above the rest of the pack. Those men are Germany’s Lukas Martens, Samuel Short of Australia, and Elijah Winnington of Australia. All three men have won major titles in this distance, with Short and Winnington winning world championships in the 400m freestyle, while Martens grabbed gold in the 2022 European championships. In a field lacking a true breakout competitor, all three have a great chance to take first place.

Olympic Men’s 400m Freestyle Major Storylines

The top storyline going into this race is whether the pair of Australians will finish in first and second place. Short and Winnington are both dangerous in this race and could win it, while their countryman could finish right behind them. That would be an incredible feat and something to watch as this race opens up the medal races in the Olympic meet.

Also worth noting is the lack of a true American contender to win this event. In 2021 in Tokyo, Kieran Smith of the United States finished in third in the 400m freestyle final, snagging the bronze medal by just over a tenth of a second over the fourth-place finisher. But Smith is at +5000 to win the gold this time around and this is one of the few swimming events where the Americans are not expected to medal.

Olympic Men’s 400m Freestyle Medal Contenders

The top-three contenders in this race are pretty clearly Martens, Short, and Winnington. No other swimmer is at under +1000 to win this race, which speaks to how far ahead of the pack the top-three swimmers are in this event. That doesn’t mean someone like Kim Woo-Min of South Korea or Germany’s Oliver Klemet can’t work their way into the medal hunt, just that it would take a great swim for it to happen.

Men’s 400m Freestyle Betting Prediction: Samuel Short (+200)

We will take a man from that main pack of three to win the gold medal in the Olympic men’s 400m freestyle race from Paris. Samuel Short of Australia is our pick to win this race, as he is a recent world champion and more than capable of taking down the favored Martens, in a race where we don’t rule out the idea of two Australians taking the gold and silver medals.