One of the breakout stars of the 2024 Olympics so far has been France’s Leon Marchand, after he destroyed the field in the men’s 400m individual medley. Marchand is back in the pool in the Olympic men’s 200m butterfly event, where he will hope to claim his second individual gold of these games on home soil. Continue reading for our breakdown of Marchand’s chances and the chances of the rest of the field as we pick the winner in the 200 fly.
Olympic Men’s 200m Butterfly Betting Odds
| Swimmer | Gold Medal Odds |
| Léon Marchand | -190 |
| Kristóf Milák | +210 |
| Tomoru Honda | +850 |
| Ilya Kharun | +5000 |
| Martin Espernberger | +6500 |
| Krzysztof Chmielewski | +6500 |
| Richárd Márton | +10000 |
| Giacomo Carini | +10000 |
| Kim Min-seop | +10000 |
| Genki Terakado | +10000 |
| Alberto Razzetti | +10000 |
| Luca Urlando | +10000 |
| Noè Ponti | +10000 |
| Michał Chmielewski | +10000 |
| Kregor Zirk | +12000 |
| Matthew Temple | +12000 |
| Niu Guangsheng | +12000 |
| Arbidel González | +12000 |
| Wang Kuan-hung | +12000 |
| Matthew Sates | +16000 |
| Denys Kesil | +16000 |
| Nicolas Albiero | +16000 |
| Petar Petrov Mitsin | +19000 |
| Lewis Clareburt | +19000 |
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook
Marchand does enter the Olympic men’s 200m butterfly as the favorite to win the race. There are only three swimmers inside of +5000 to come away with the gold medal in this event at FanDuel at the time of this writing. While the odds for some of the other competitors will come down slightly as swimmers qualify for the semifinals and the finals of this race, Marchand should remain the odds-on favorite given how well he swam in his first major final of these games.
Olympic Men’s 200m Butterfly Major Storylines
France’s Marchand enters the men’s 200m butterfly as the biggest storyline going into the race. But he could have the spotlight taken from him by Kristof Milak of Hungary. Milak is the current world record holder in this distance, a record he set in the world championships in 2022 when he beat Marchand for gold in Budapest. While Marchand is on home soil this time instead of Milak, the Hungarian has proven himself more than capable of winning big-time races in this event, as he has never lost a major race at the junior or senior level in the 200 fly.
Another storyline to monitor going into this race is whether anyone from outside of the top-three on the list of favorites can compete for a medal. It looks pretty clear that Marchand and Milak will be among those on the podium. With nearly the entire field at +5000 or longer odds to win gold here, it seems like we have a good idea as to who the podium will consist of in the 200 fly from Paris.
Olympic Men’s 200m Butterfly Medal Contenders
That podium group is expected to consist of Marchand, Milak, and Tomoru Honda of Japan. Honda won silver in the 200m butterfly in the Tokyo Olympics in 2021, and won gold in this event at the 2024 World Championships in Doha. However, Marchand and Milak were not a part of the field for that championship race, making it hard to see Honda as the winner of this event where they are both involved.
Men’s 200m Butterfly Betting Prediction: Kristof Milak (+210)
Marchand is a deserved favorite to win this race after how well he performed in the 400m IM earlier in this meet. But Milak is a prolific butterfly specialist, who we have yet to see lose a big race in this distance and discipline. We will take Milak at a nice plus price to get the job done here, even if Marchand will be the most popular play as the favorite to take home the gold in this event.
