A week ago, in this very column, I declared this French side “simply unbeatable”. I stand by every word. Right up until the moment Spain kick off against them in Dallas tomorrow night, at which point I reserve the sacred columnist’s right to have seen it all coming. Because if there is one team left in this tournament with the tools, temperament and history to send Les Bleus home, it is the European champions. Here is how they can do it.
Key Takeaways: How Spain Can Dethrone France
- The Psychological Edge: La Roja hold a definitive mental advantage, having defeated Les Bleus in their last two competitive meetings, including the Euro 2024 semi-final and a scarring 5-4 Nations League thrashing in 2025.
- Tactical Starvation: France’s terrifying frontline needs the ball to rotate and interchange, but Spain’s suffocating press (7.8 tournament average PPDA) and relentless midfield control (64% average possession) are perfectly equipped to starve them of it.
- The Decisive Matchup: A surging Lamine Yamal, who already has two recent goals against France, is peaking at the perfect time and is perfectly positioned to exploit France’s most vulnerable defensive link in Lucas Digne.
- Battle-Hardened Resilience: Unlike France’s smooth cruise to Dallas, Spain has survived a grueling, bruising run of fixtures, proving they possess the grit to grind out ugly, one-goal victories when the pressure mounts.
- The Champions’ Aura: Under Luis de la Fuente, this Spanish core has already won a major tournament and two Nations Leagues. They are unafraid of the big stage and possess the collective muscle memory to close out elite knockout matches.
Spain Hold the Psychological Edge, Dominate Recent H2H
Euro 2024 semi-final · Munich
Yamal’s wonder strike and Olmo’s winner overturn an early Kolo Muani header. Spain go on to win the title.
Nations League SF 2025 · Stuttgart
Yamal scores twice as Spain lead 5-1 before a stoppage-time flurry. First time France concede five since 1969.
Competitive meetings since 2024
2
Spain wins
2
Aggregate score
7 – 5
Yamal goals in those games
2
Twice in the last two years these sides have met in meaningful, competitive matches, and twice Spain have won. In the Euro 2024 semi-final, La Roja came from behind to win 2-1 on their way to the title.
Then, in last June’s Nations League semi-final, they inflicted something closer to a humiliation: 5-4 flatters France enormously, because Spain were 5-2 up and coasting before a a late flurry from Les Blues dressed up the scoreline. It was the first time France had conceded five goals in a match since 1969.
Deschamps’ players know exactly how it feels to be pulled apart by this Spain side, and that kind of scar tissue does not heal in twelve months. When the game gets tight tomorrow, one of these teams will be thinking about Stuttgart. It won’t be Spain.
Spain Remain Pass Masters
The French frontline is, as previously mentioned, terrifying. But everything frightening about France, the rotations, the interchange, Mbappé ghosting into the left channel, Olise drifting off the ten, requires one thing. Possession.
Spain are the one side in the world capable of putting France’s front five on a starvation diet. With Rodri conducting (and looking like 2023 Rodri for what it’s worth), and Pedri, Fabián Ruiz or Dani Olmo circulating around him, Spain have monopolised the ball in every game at this World Cup, and their pressing numbers tell the same story. When they do lose it, they hunt it back faster than anyone left in the competition.
Avg possession, WC 2026
64%
Lowest in any match
59%
Avg PPDA (lower = fiercer press)
7.8
Possession share by match
PPDA by match vs tournament average
Austria possession figure via FIFA; remaining possession values are estimates based on match reports.
France’s freshness is a fine argument, one I made myself last week, but fresh legs are worthless when you spend ninety minutes chasing shadows at Jerry World on Tuesday. Spain don’t just keep the ball; they decide where the game is played, and that place is the middle third, where they outnumber France’s double pivot every single time.
Yamal Is Peaking
With Mbappé chasing the all-time World Cup goalscoring record, the best player in this fixture wears blue. But Spain have made their way through this tournament with their biggest X factor quite literally hamstrung.
However, Lamine Yamal’s influence has grown with every round of this tournament. Quiet by his standards in the group, he has started to look like the player who was the Ballon D’Or favorite before this tournament started. Decisive against Austria, he was relentless against Nuno Mendes and Portugal, and weaved all kinds of magic against Belgium, including one mesmerising run where he weaved his way past 4 Belgians before being unceremoniously chopped down by Jeremy Doku. It’s been slow going, but the Barcelona maestro looks to be peaking at just the right time.
He also happens to have history here, registering two goals the last time these sides met in that Stuttgart evisceration. Furthermore, he attacks arguably the weakest member of the French defense in Lucas Digne, who will receive little support from Barcola or Doue, who both like to ‘cheat’ by staying further upfield to launch a counter attack. A winger trending sharply upwards, taking on arguably the one chink in the French armor, is exactly the sort of detail that decides semi-finals.
Spain Can Win Ugly
The old knock on Spain was that they were beautiful losers. Purveyors of death by a thousand passes, before being hit by a sucker punch. This vintage is different. A 1-0 grind past Portugal. A 2-1 quarter-final against Belgium won by Merino in the dying minutes, with Pedri (Pedri!) left on the bench and Spain still finding a way.
They stumbled through the group, drew with Cape Verde, took their medicine against Uruguay, and have emerged battle-hardened rather than broken. France have cruised, while Spain have suffered. In one-off knockout football, the team that has already stared down the barrel is usually the more dangerous animal.
The Champions’ Aura Is Real
Lest we forget, Spain arrive as reigning European champions, with a core that has won a major tournament and two Nations Leagues together under Luis de la Fuente. They have beaten France, Germany, England and Portugal in knockout football inside two years. There is no stage that intimidates them, no scoreline that panics them, and no opponent they secretly fear, least of all one they’ve beaten twice on the bounce. France have the stars. Spain have the silverware, the system, and the scars they’ve given everybody else.
So Can Spain Really Beat France?
So there it is. Having spent last week explaining at length why France cannot be beaten, I have now spent this one explaining precisely how they will be. Jay calls this a lack of conviction; I prefer to think of it as comprehensive coverage. But if Rodri strangles the midfield, if Yamal keeps trending the way he’s trending, and if Spain do to France even half of what they did in Stuttgart, don’t say nobody warned you. It’s not coming home. But it might well be going to Madrid.
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