Panama and Croatia meet in Toronto with Group L pressure already building after both teams opened the 2026 World Cup with a loss. Panama were beaten 1-0 by Ghana on a 95th-minute winner despite controlling long stretches of the match, while Croatia fell 4-2 to England in a wide-open contest. A second defeat would leave either side in a precarious spot before the final group fixture, so expect a far more urgent performance from both teams.
Panama vs Croatia Pick
- Pick: Croatia Moneyline -190
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Panama vs Croatia Match Preview
Panama have reason to feel frustrated after their opener. Thomas Christiansen’s side had 62% possession against Ghana, completed 502 passes, and produced 12 shots. Ghana did not register an attempt until the 48th minute, yet Panama still left Toronto with no points after Caleb Yirenkyi struck late.
There was control in Panama’s performance, but the final ball was often missing. Their 0.75 expected goals total showed that much of the possession came in less dangerous areas. That issue becomes more significant against Croatia, especially with Adalberto Carrasquilla ruled out. Carrasquilla is Panama’s most influential midfielder and gives the side a cleaner route from buildup play into attacking areas. Without him, Panama may need more from Cristian Martínez, José Luis Rodríguez, and Ismael Díaz in transition.
The good news for Panama is that Croatia arrive after a defensive performance that concerned Zlatko Dalić. England created 2.8 expected goals from 22 shots in the 4-2 win, while Croatia generated only 0.71 expected goals from 10 attempts. Croatia did score twice through Martin Baturina and Petar Musa, but England found too much room after halftime and pulled away.
Dalić has called for a sharper response, particularly around set pieces and defensive concentration. Croatia still have the edge in individual quality, though. Luka Modrić is set for his 200th international appearance, while Mateo Kovačić and Joško Gvardiol give Croatia greater composure in possession than Panama faced against Ghana. The main question is whether Croatia can turn that control into clearer chances before Panama settle into a low block.
This matchup should feel different from Croatia’s meeting with England. Panama are likely to keep more bodies behind the ball, limit open-field sequences, and make Croatia work through multiple defensive lines. That can create a slow opening, but Croatia have enough experience to stay patient rather than force high-risk passes early.
Panama’s route to an upset is clear. They need to keep the game level deep into the second half, protect the central areas without Carrasquilla, and find Díaz or Rodríguez in space after Croatian turnovers. Croatia will have more possession and should create the better chances, but Panama showed against Ghana that they can make a stronger opponent work hard for every opening.
Betting Insights
- Croatia are listed between -178 and -204 on the moneyline across major sportsbooks.
- Panama are available between +575 and +614 for an outright win.
- The draw is priced around +317 to +330.
- Over 2.5 goals is around -138, while Under 2.5 goals sits near +111.
- Panama have now lost all 4 of their World Cup group-stage matches (2018 and 2026) and have conceded in every one of them.
- Croatia allowed 22 England shots in their opener, but Panama may not carry the same attacking volume without Carrasquilla.
The moneyline is the cleaner way to approach Croatia. The price is not cheap, but Croatia have the stronger midfield, more tournament experience, and a better chance of improving from an underwhelming first match. Panama’s injury absence also removes an important piece from their possession game.
Panama vs Croatia Model Projection
- Score Projection: Panama 0 – Croatia 2
- Win Probability: Panama 14%, Croatia 65%
Croatia should control territory and possession, though Panama have enough defensive organization to avoid an early collapse. The first goal matters enormously. If Croatia score before halftime, Panama will have to open up, which would favor Modrić, Kovačić, and Croatia’s attacking runners.
Panama can stay competitive for long spells, but Carrasquilla’s absence lowers their chance of turning possession into sustained pressure around the Croatian penalty area. Croatia are the better side and should have enough quality to secure a needed 2-0 win.
More Soccer Betting Picks
